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Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by chubs on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:11PM (#11664317)
Some good thoughts on this topic I read recently: * Quantative Easing (eg printing money) floods the economy with money, it has go somewhere. * Since the real economy (manufacturing / information) isn't growing, the money flows into assets (eg real estate or stock bubbles) * When there's zero interest, it exacerbates the problem, because if you've got capital, it's impossible to find anywhere to invest it to get a return. Hence you're incentivised to put it into assets. * Basically you're not seeing assets (houses/stock) going up in value, you're seeing money go down in value. It's basically out-of-control inflation, it's just that the inflation isn't spread evenly yet.

Disclaimer: These aren't my ideas, i'm merely parroting. But i thought they were clever and worth sharing.

Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by ftwinnovations on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:28PM (#11664381)
These ideas are more than just clever, they are exactly what is happening due to money printing and zero to near-zero interest rates. You restated the facts well.

As to those who claim QE ended, and other nonsensical ignorant claims, that is irrelevant. The money went to reliquify the broke banks' balance sheets, and so of course did not immediately leave their digital vaults. That takes time, and we are slowly (technically not at all slowely) watching the destruction of the dollar's purchasing power via mass inflation, beginning with the assets closest to the money printing spigot: real estate, stocks, fine art, and other elite assets.

Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by forgetsusername on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:53PM (#11664494)
>other nonsensical ignorant claims

Inflation is the rise in overall price level, not the increase in a few select asset classes. We aren't seeing inflation. The people who have been making that claim for 5+ years have been wrong. Period.

Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by rtpg on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:47PM (#11664461)
Does it matter if there's fine art inflation? The real estate inflation boom seems more linked to housing policy than QE too...

Declaring mass inflation for the dollar doesn't seem to align with how CPI is evolving though, and it's not like the dollar is losing much ground to foreign currencies. If standard purchases haven't changed much, and purchasing abroad hasn't changed much, could we say that things have changed much?

Though you're saying slowly, maybe I'll ride the bubble til it bursts just like the rest of 'em.

Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by pessimizer on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:59PM (#11664527)
> Does it matter if there's fine art inflation?

Depends on how leveraged it is.

Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by rtpg on Monday May 09, 2016 @09:00PM (#11664533)
Good point, though I really hope we're not basing too many derivative products off of fine arts
Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by Spooky23 on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:53PM (#11664497)
Fine art inflation is often just a form of money laundering and a tax shelter.
Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by rmrm on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:43PM (#11664442)
and yet the dollar is not substantially weakened vs other currencies, it is quite strong. This isn't a dollar specific phenomenon at all.

It seems a more appropriate statement would be destruction of all currencies purchasing power. Which leads me to wonder - what is the impact of that exactly?

Should the dollar be allowed to strengthen greatly (relatively to basket of all other currencies), is that what people are proposing? Can we guess at what the dollar based economy might do in that instance?

Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by toephu2 on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:55PM (#11664510)
"is quite strong"...yes currently, but the decline has already begun against major currencies, e.g. JPY: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=JPY&view=1Y Also checkout the dollar index: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by rmrm on Monday May 09, 2016 @09:32PM (#11664640)
My point is that other currencies are not static. All the world economies are jockeying to have relatively weak currencies, in order to attempt to spur inflation and ease their debt loads. It's all relative. The US is not in some particularly bad spot, certainly Japan and Europe finance ministers would trade places with ours any day of the week. We have a remarkably strong economy (and everything else, really) in comparison (which is all that matters).
Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by shostack on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:34PM (#11664410)
So what happens as it spreads then? The dollar continues to tumble but asset prices still keep going up?
Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by lr4444lr on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:54PM (#11664501)
But you can't just look at the rise in one good relative to the medium of exchange (money) and say that money is going down in value; people want a return, and stocks haven't provided it in the last 2.5 years or so, which about matches up with the author's timeline. If the buyers were actually _living_ in these houses as primary residences, it'd make a stronger case for genuine inflation. Commodifying them as value generators by flipping or renting them out may be the beginning of a speculative bubble - not a good thing, but a different phenomenon.
Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by shawnee_ on Monday May 09, 2016 @09:25PM (#11664621)
Since the real economy (manufacturing / information) isn't growing, the money flows into assets (eg real estate or stock bubbles) When there's zero interest, it exacerbates the problem, because if you've got capital, it's impossible to find anywhere to invest it to get a return.

A nifty chart that shows this idea in a 3D graph:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/03/19/upshot/3d-yiel...

Hence you're incentivised to put it into assets. Basically you're not seeing assets (houses/stock) going up in value, you're seeing money go down in value.

My theory is that it has become far too easy (profitable) for middlemen to extract that value from people when they are attempting to invest. Maybe some academics should look into expanding the Principal-Agent problem[1] into the Brokerage-Agent problem. Most brokerages don't care whether the value of an asset goes up or down, only that the trade takes place so that they get their cut. This is what exacerbates the problem, not zero interest. Realtors are especially adept at convincing buyers to bid up properties based on their future value. Securities brokers know that when fear and hype push volume in either direction, it has been a good day; it doesn't really matter if it ends red or green because they get cut whenever trades take place, regardless of whether people are cashing in or cashing out of the market. Quantitative-based profiteering on volatility.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal-agent_problem

Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by dragonwriter on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:18PM (#11664336)
> * Quantative Easing (eg printing money) floods the economy with money, it has go somewhere.

US QE stopped in October of 2014.

Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by CoffeeDregs on Monday May 09, 2016 @09:01PM (#11664534)
That's just in the US. Also, that sugar hasn't necessarily worked itself out of the bloodstream yet.
Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by wonnage on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:21PM (#11664353)
money going down in value isn't out-of-control inflation, it's inflation
Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by danieltillett on Monday May 09, 2016 @08:50PM (#11664479)
It is not inflation until your wage rises.
Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by King-Aaron on Monday May 09, 2016 @09:42PM (#11664671)
Re:The seeds of the next housing crisis have been planted by forgetsusername on Monday May 09, 2016 @09:02PM (#11664542)
>Hence you're incentivised to put it into assets.

Why is this bad? Where else should you put your investment dollars, if not into assets?