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Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by WaylonKenning on Monday April 18, 2016 @10:47PM (#11524578)
Everyone seems a bit obsessed by batteries as a storage method, when we have more traditional methods:

- Pumped-storage hydroelectricity - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricit.... Sure it's not suitable everywhere.

- There's always Molten Salt as well - http://www.solarreserve.com/en/technology/molten-salt-energy....

Also, solar isn't the be all and end all of renewable energy generation. Wind, Solar, Hydro, and Geothermal all have different strengths and weaknesses, and flexibility of generation is important.

But above all, I think security of supply is probably the number 1 requirement (unless you're a big fan of load shedding - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_blackout), and therefore, we'll still need energy sources that are reliable.

I predict a move away from coal towards natural gas. Sure it's not perfect, but it's not the worst either.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by dredmorbius on Monday April 18, 2016 @11:16PM (#11524662)
No idea why the hivemind is downvoting you, but you're absolutely correct.

A couple of additions and caveats.

Friend of mine at ORNL has been talking up compressed air energy storage (CAES). I'm somewhat dubious due to the Boyles law heating/cooling problem (gasses heat when compressed, cool when expanded, and the resulting heat flows affect both efficiency and equipment function -- gas turbines don't spin well when iced solid).

Pumped-hydro is the most efficient storage solution bar none, but is painfully restricted by siting opportunities. Being able to use oceans as a lower baisin might address this, though salt-water engineering is a significant concern (corrosion and other issues).

Interesting to see molten salt as at large scale that pencils out a viable for even, say, a two week total energy replacement solution for the US. You'd need tankage (insulated) roughly corresponding to current Oaklahoma oil transshipment storage facilities.

Electricity-to-fuel is another option, with Sabatier and Fischer-Tropsch cycles both proven. Carbon source from seawater appears somewhat promising, though my concern is that there's been 50 years of research without a large-scale demonstration project, making me suspect deeper issues.

I actually am a fan of load-shedding, and suspect that the concept of dispatchable load as opposed to supply may be part of the future way of thinking.

Coal => gas is a no-brainer, though also not a total solution, by a long shot.

Geothermal is highly underrated, especially if currently protected areas are opened for consideration. The Yellowstone caldera could possibly supply up to 15% of total US electrical demand.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by Someone on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @11:33AM (#11527674)
"Being able to use oceans as a lower baisin might address this"

There also are ideas to use the ocean as the higher basin. See https://trustyetverify.wordpress.com/2014/12/11/energy-from-..., https://www.technologyreview.com/s/510806/a-manmade-island-t...

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by dredmorbius on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @11:51AM (#11527806)
Interesting. Japan's done a lower baisin trial.
Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by jasonwatkinspdx on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @11:22AM (#11527593)
> Carbon source from seawater appears somewhat promising, though my concern is that there's been 50 years of research without a large-scale demonstration project, making me suspect deeper issues.

I haven't seen anything about it recently, but the Navy was/is funding a demonstration plant in Hawaii. I really hope it works out as I'm skeptical that the developing world will shift to electric vehicles anytime soon.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by dredmorbius on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @11:59AM (#11527852)
Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by artr on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @12:01AM (#11524790)
This is what Danielle Fong at Lightsail has been doing since 2009. They've had investment from Bill Gates and Peter Thiel. They've developed a way to compress and decompress air efficiently by heating/cooling the air. by using a carbon fibre air canister they are able to store air at a much higher pressure than previously possible.

Her Ted Talk[1] and their website[2] explains it much better than I do.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZiaTV6uvFQ [2] http://www.lightsail.com/

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by extrapickles on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @02:36AM (#11525241)
Compressed air storage rings of a scam to me. They never mention how efficient it is to compress the air and turn the air back into electricity. It's always how efficient their storage tank is, which on paper gives batteries a run for their money.

When sizing an industrial air system a rule of thumb is to budget 7-8hp of compressor for 1 hp of air motor. That is 12% efficiency, or only worth it if you had no other source of power. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume a tightly integrated system you could do 3x better, but it still doesn't come close to batteries.

If someone has plug-plug numbers that are better, let me know.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by shalmanese on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @01:09PM (#11528422)
There's some secret magic going on using moisture and phase change to drastically up the efficiency and storage capacity. It's not just a simple compressed air system which, as you noted, doesn't work. No idea if their current system will work or not but it's complicated enough that they've spent 7 years trying to get it right.
Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by dredmorbius on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @05:12AM (#11525770)
My understanding is that the grid-scale stuff will be using natural geological reservoirs -- basically re-filling old gas wells with air.

My understanding isn't particularly deep, and I'd like to run numbers on storage, volume, pressure, etc. But I suspect this'll have to be big enough that constructing cans really isn't viable.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by extrapickles on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @12:09PM (#11527928)
The main problem in my mind is not where to store the compressed air, but the poor efficiency of compressing/using the air. Compressing air produces quite a bit of heat, and you have the opposite problem when using the air. For Thermal and other storage methods while the storage part might be more lossy, they are less lossy over all because they dont toss away 80% of the power before it can be stored.

If it was more efficient, than we would see air powered cars (not the scam that surfaces every other year).

Industry only uses it to power things because you can have simple & compact actuators and high rpm motors.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by dredmorbius on Wednesday April 20, 2016 @03:32AM (#11532818)
Realise that virtually all your energy storage options have hugely pressing cost, capacity, or storage stability problems.

Pumped hydro's remarkably efficient, fast-responding (minutes), but extremely limited in scale. See Tom "Do the Math" Murphy, but I think you'd need ~1,500 or was it ~15,000 Hoover-dam sized project for US storage capacity.

Batteries are fairly efficient, but respond slowly (you can neither charge nor discharge them rapidly), and at scale virtually all have massive substrate / materials shortages -- lead and lithium particularly. Iron-based batteries should be abundant, and liquid metal or molten-salt batteries seem to be the most abundant. Storage densities aren't great, but if you're building stationary facilities, that's not a concern. The 600C - 800C temperatures may be though. Having a neighbourhood melt-out wouldn't be pretty.

Biomass might work for standby thermal generation.

Thermal salt storage also pencils out. But any thermal storage system, that is, hot stuff you use to boil a working fluid that runs through a gas turbine, suffers from Carnot efficiency losses, about 35-45 max efficiency. If in a desert area, you've got problems of cooling your working fluid without venting too much of it (or the coolant). Not insoluble problems, but an issue.

Heat also doesn't store indefinitely though it should be good for hours to a few days.

Fuel synthesis has the advantage of scaling fairly arbitrarily large, particularly with liquid hydrocarbons. Put them in liquid-proof tanks and they'll stay there. Storage stability is proven to 100s of millions of years, so there's that. They're also transportable and can be utilised on-site. You lose 50% in hydrogen electrolysis, plus 65% on Carnot, for a net return of about 17%, but if you've sufficient peak surplus, that's viable.

CAES has the hot/cold problem, but there's a lot of air, and there's a lot of underground reservoir. Again I'm not sold that it pencils out, but it's possible.

Other options include direct banking of heat for buildings and/or industrial processes -- these use a lot of energy, and direct application and storage avoids electric or electric-to-fuel conversion losses.

It'll be interesting.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by evgen on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @05:59AM (#11525891)
Doesn't this run into insulating problems for the resevoir? How do you prevent the pressure from being lost as heat?
Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by dredmorbius on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @11:50AM (#11527798)
Rock is a pretty good insulator.

Anythhing exposed to fluid isn't. Groundwater flws, tanks in air.

I'm not sure about possible ignition explosion risk from residual methaane or hyrogen, say.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by olau on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @06:30AM (#11526010)
Wind pioneer and former CTO of Siemens Wind Power is currently working on energy storage using rocks instead of a molten salt - he's blogging about it in the Danish engineering news site ing.dk.

Molten salt is efficient because of the phase change, but also much more difficult and expensive to handle than a big (well enormous) bunch of hot rocks. Last thing I heard, he's currently trying to get demonstration plant up and running - it sounded like they'd already done some experiments at Siemens before he left.

Anyway, nowhere near ready, but just to show that there are still low-tech options out there being examined.

Another low-tech option is biomass, either wood chips/pills or other stuff processed into methane.

Yeah, it's not as cheap as coal, but with good grid connections we need less storage than people seem to think, at least according to the research papers I've seen.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by kaybe on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @07:28AM (#11526190)
We had research show that you can offset storage with capacity to some degree. [0]

Some numbers: 100% renewable energy with a capacity of 340% would require 8% storage just for Germany, 3.8% for Europe (due to larger area which means more diverse weather). Also 8% for Europe using no solar and more wind instead.

The 340% capacity is needed to get to the 100% coverage since there is more downtime compared to old energy which had 180% in 2007.

If we go to 390% capacity (which corresponds to 170 GW additional production as calculated for Germany) we only need 0.9% storage.

Depending on the relative pricing of additional capacity and storage, the price for building the whole infrastructure can go down by half. (The upper limit given in numbers is of the same order of magnitude as Europe's GDP in 2009, 12·10^12 €)

[0] (German) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/piuz.201201301/ab...

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by dangravell on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @05:38AM (#11525838)
PCM being used for domestic hot water now, see companies like http://sunamp.co.uk/products/sunamppv/ .

Much better than water - higher energy capacity means smaller units and higher performing insulation making losses much lower.

Heat loss is a bit problem in stored water DHW scenarios and will get even more of a problem if we begin building houses properly (which surely has to happen at some point).

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by erikpukinskis on Monday April 18, 2016 @11:42PM (#11524724)
Batteries have some advantages that can offset the cost a little:

1) You can move them around, as in an electric car. That's useful if you want to do mobile stuff like driving. Or if you just flat-out want to move the facility somewhere it will be more useful.

2) They can be efficiently decentralized, which benefits reliability, and decreases transmission loss.

But anyway, the solution is to use any and all technologies, right? Batteries make sense some places, gravity storage elsewhere.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by amazon_not on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @06:11AM (#11525937)
> Or if you just flat-out want to move the facility somewhere it will be more useful.

While an interesting theory, I can't think of a single scenario where this would be economically justified.

> 2) They can be efficiently decentralized, which benefits reliability, and decreases transmission loss.

Transmission losses are about 6%, so not really any economic gain.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by erikpukinskis on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @10:44PM (#11531923)
Wouldn't that be a 6% economic gain?
Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by amazon_not on Wednesday April 20, 2016 @02:14AM (#11532586)
Only if your local generation plus battery system is equivalent or cheaper at providing power than the grid. Most battery systems aren't profitable even if power is free. So, no.
Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by ZeroGravitas on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @04:45PM (#11530242)
Batteries have a variety of uses on the grid. If you're clever enough to use them for several of these at the same time, it makes it easier to pay their way:

http://www.rmi.org/electricity_battery_value

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by Gustomaximus on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @01:31AM (#11525076)
Similar to pumped water storage I wonder if we could do a household version with weight. Something like the gravity light (gravitylight.org) but on larger scale. I wonder if we could see a resurgence of chimneys on houses except now instead of letting smoke out they contain a XY ton weights that gets pushed up by excess solar capacity during the day, and then drops by evening powering the house.

I have no idea if that's realistic. Does someone know what the weight/distance to power output would be limited at...

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by rm445 on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @01:43AM (#11525099)
The potential energy of a mass m at height h is mgh.

Play with this and you'll immediately see it doesn't seem useful. e.g. storing a 50-tonne weight at 10m gives you less than 1.5 kWh of energy.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by Gustomaximus on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @02:47AM (#11525265)
So probably needs in excess of 750 ton. And more likely twice as a house would more likely have a 5m 'chimney'. Clearly not viable. Thanks.
Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by swombat on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @02:59AM (#11525305)
A much better and denser option for storing energy mechanically is flywheels. I haven't researched what happened to this option since but when I was looking into it 15 years ago it seemed like a good option that needed more R&D into frictionless axles and vacuum chambers.
Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by dredmorbius on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @05:17AM (#11525785)
Excellent rapid response, second only to capacitors. But pretty poor densities, and hugely significant engineering challenges.

Flywheels that don't become fly-apart wheels is one problem.

Containment of fly-apart wheels another. Buried concrete pipes are usually what you're looking at. You need mass to contain these things.

The per-kg energy densities just aren't all that high. If you want reactive load to soak up very short-term demand / supply fluctuations, you can get that. And you've got crazy charge-discharge cycles.

Bearings are mostly solvable with magnets, as I understand. But you still lose a given percentage of storage over short time -- ~1% per hour or so, within a few powers of 2. Enough that long-term storage isn't viable.

And the thing that really screws you over is that the Earth moves. Geometric precession of your flywheel is something you've got to deal with.

There's a place, but I don't think it's large-scale, long-term grid storage.

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by pjc50 on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @07:15AM (#11526139)
The Formula 1 "KERS" system is based around high-speed flywheels and seems to work quite well.
Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by thinkcontext on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @10:19AM (#11527108)
You are referring to a hydraulic accumulator[0], such systems were built in the 19th century, though not for household use.

There is a modern effort to use the technology in a massively scaled up fashion by Heindl Energy[1]. Their concept uses pumped water to raise a rock weight 100 meters or more in diameter.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_accumulator [1] http://www.heindl-energy.com/hydraulic-rock-storage/overview...

Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by Gustomaximus on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @03:53AM (#11525497)
And considering this, a big question is will the market move away from centralized power systems. Will it be more viable to have a local/household level power generation and storage or will scale continue to give cost savings. This will likely have the biggest effect on storage/generation methods used. Possibly hybrid with distributed for suburb/rural and consolidated for urban/commercial? Or locally generated with grid peak power? Interesting times.
Re:How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes ov... by xbmcuser on Tuesday April 19, 2016 @07:24AM (#11526174)
Batteries are the best bet for going off grid not for utilities based solar. Now that in more cities and states of US the utilities are getting net metering banned for home solar.