[1] This is not an imaginary scenario. [2] This has actually happened.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Thailand+lese+majeste+Facebo...
With regards to international politics, if the USA can demand that Apple unlocks devices for any reason, then the US government will have a hard time defending a decision to aid Apple in resisting a foreign power when it requests the same broad privilege.
You are not addressing the issue at hand. You are instead arguing that if we somehow don't take your side here, then there will never be another point at which we can argue the pros and cons of possible subsequent escalations or refusals.
Which is why it's a fallacy.
I don't think that if the FBI wins the current battle then all is lost. But I do think that the FBI intends to fight all the battles until they win the long game.
That said, I don't hold any side in the argument.
The OP is using fallacious reasoning, even if it is accurate reasoning :-)
Basically, lim(consequences) = no guarantees that USA secrets are actually secret. If they can't keep the lid on one employee (Snowden) how on earth could they trust themselves with something this dangerous? 'Z' is inevitable.
The wording/example that Apple used really appeals to the common person, but you need to frame it for the government if you are talking to the government.
[1]: https://www.win.tue.nl/~aeb/linux/hh/thompson/trust.html
And it should be pointed out that point A never existed. Apple's device is not fully secure, or they wouldn't be capable of complying with the FBI.
The FBI is currently arguing for point B - just this device. The argument is - it is so close to point A, there is no issue!
If the FBI wins point B, then they will argue for point C. - it is so close to point B, there is no issue!
If the FBI wins point C, then they will argue for point D. - it is so close to point C, there is no issue!
Repeat over and over.
At about point M or sooner an exploit or the extraction processes to the gradually less secure device would probably become available to governments through means legal or otherwise and we would probably hit point Z straight away.
Apple are trying to stop the inevitable by not starting, the FBI are arguing for point B.