So for it to work, you need to issue a statement every month that says you haven't been issued a NSL, and then simply not issue a statement the month you finally were issued a NSL. That would then require the government to actually compel speech (compel you to post a new notice saying you didn't receive a canary).
Of course, the above should make it blatantly obvious how absolutely absurd the blanket gag order on NSLs are.
So, by compelling Apple to code something that doesn't exist, the government would indeed actually be compelling speech.
So, I'm not sure what the value is of a clever argument that compelling Apple to comply with the order here is "compelling speech" is supposed to be (likewise, the upthread one about NSL canaries.)
On a separate note though, I've always thought it would be interesting to see a member of Congress be issued a NSL and then have them read it on the floor of the House/Senate (since they have parliamentary immunity for anything they say on the floor of the House or Senate).
One of the big problems with NSLs is that you can't let anyone know that you've received or acted on one, so there's very little accountability.
Hence the recent trend of some companies including a warrant canary on their websites, under the assumption that a NSL can't prevent you from _not_ saying something (e.g. deleting the canary).