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Re:San Francisco Bubble by themagician on Friday January 29, 2016 @11:54AM (#10996357)
Money has been close to free for years. As the interest rate ticks up everything will change. It's already starting to. More expensive borrowing, less leverage, and better places to put dollars than venture.

The one thing I really agree with though is the funny thing that happens here with the word "engineer". If you can make a website you somehow qualify for the title software engineer. By Bay Area standards, I myself am director level engineering talent—and I get offers for such all the time—and yet I don't even remotely consider myself an engineer. Because I can make a website? Because I know a little python, ruby and node? Come on. I've never written anything that lives in a real production environment and you want to hire me as your director of engineering? Are you mad?

Re:San Francisco Bubble by objclxt on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:11PM (#10996530)
> [...] and yet I don't even remotely consider myself an engineer.

I phone screened somebody not so long ago who asked me if it was the "kind of job where you have to write a lot of code", because they "weren't that sort of software engineer". Didn't quite know what to make of that.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by wwweston on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:29PM (#10996728)
That person might be perfect for my job. I've been largely reading mountains of code that other people have written, until I understand what it does, and then make (usually small) changes in order to either fix a defect or add functionality.

I don't love it. Maybe the person you screened should be doing my job.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by swalsh on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:50PM (#10996925)
It could be an awful way of saying he prefers maintenance to new development.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by Apocryphon on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:40PM (#10996830)
Maybe he was an IT person who doesn't know what IT is called.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by sbov on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:38PM (#10996809)
Some of the funnest jobs are when you delete lots of code.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by luckydude on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:30PM (#10996740)
It's the dotcom stuff all over again. I remember interviewing some guy who wanted to be my VP of engineering.

Have you ever fired anyone? "Nope"

Have you ever shipped a product and supported it for more than a year? "Nope"

Do you have any quality engineers that would come with you? "Nope"

Have you ever managed a manager? "Nope"

I noped his ass out the door.

Fear not, this craziness will pass.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by amyjess on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:59PM (#10997012)
You can thank companies giving out VP or Director titles to their first technical hires for that.

At my last company, my boss was the first technical hire. His title was Director of Software Engineering. He got that title and the responsibilities that came with it solely because he was the first technical hire.

He had no management experience at all. He was a great engineer, but he couldn't manage his way out of a paper bag. He had the double whammy of both not knowing a thing about process and not understanding people. He didn't think having a process was necessary because his own code was amazing, he wrote the initial versions of our software all by himself in what actually is a solid example of a well-engineered project, and he couldn't fathom how anyone's code could be less than amazing. He also couldn't handle stress, and he had a habit of screaming at his subordinates and treating us like children whenever he got stressed.

His management was the biggest reason I quit.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by fossuser on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:41PM (#10997397)
I've been thinking about this a lot lately.

I think engineers/developers/hackers tend to undervalue the skills necessary to manage a project well. Basically considering the work a lot easier than writing code or building something and thinking that anyone can do it (including themselves in your example).

I think the reason for this is because a lot of people can do a shitty job managing a team and it's not as obvious as when people do a shitty job programming (or at least there are more people that can be a bad manager undetected than can be a bad programmer).

It's harder to bullshit technical skills, but a bad manager could have good enough social/political skills to get power and it's probably also more likely to attract people looking for power. Engineering seems to provide a filter to avoid some of this naturally.

That said being a really effective PM, Manager, VP is a skill different from programming and with a similar depth that shouldn't be dismissed easily. This is more obvious to HN probably because startup founders often have to get better at it in order to build a company. Since it tends to rely a decent amount on empathy and social skills in addition to being able to understand the technical pieces/prioritization it's also harder to know how good you'll be at it when starting.

It is something you can get better at though, just takes investment/learning like anything else.

Reminds me of Tom West from Soul of a New Machine.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by dikdik on Friday January 29, 2016 @04:45PM (#10998739)
I wish there was a popular Rate my Manager site like Rate My Professor. Or companies at least took the time to poll people anonymously about their managers and took action against it. Managers make or break your experience at work.

In my experience, once you are in management it takes a hell of a lot more fuck-ups before you are ousted.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by wambotron on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:01PM (#10997030)
What does any of that have to do with 'dotcom stuff' or bubbles? People apply to jobs they're unqualified for in every field all the time.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by hindsightbias on Friday January 29, 2016 @02:14PM (#10997689)
> apply

Because they got the job.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by wambotron on Friday January 29, 2016 @03:26PM (#10998222)
Again, this is not startup/bubble-specific. There are unqualified people all over the place.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by ryandrake on Saturday January 30, 2016 @12:09AM (#11000614)
Did you eventually find this perfect candidate that ticked all your checkboxes? Or are you still "looking".....?
Re:San Francisco Bubble by heraclez on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:36PM (#10996790)
In Canada, you get sued if you call yourself an engineer when you're not part of an order of engineers.

Even if you're a bona fide engineer, but not enrolled in the order, calling yourself one opens the floodgates of hell where spaghetti coders do the same and get hired by retarded HR departments to take the lead on some mission-critical software.

I like this. I am a self-learned developer. When my peers call themselves engineers, I spit my coffee.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by MAGZine on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:08PM (#10997091)
> In Canada, you get sued if you call yourself an engineer when you're not part of an order of engineers.

Ehhhh. If you try to stamp and sign structural engineering documents as an engineer, and then a bridge collapses, you're open to litigation. I don't think anyone has been (successfully?) sued for declaring themeselves as Software Engineers in Canada. There are no damages.

Interestingly, you can call yourself an "SE," and its fine (according the professional engineering associations), but companies in YVR actively recruit "software engineers" (e.g. Electronic Arts)

Re:San Francisco Bubble by brianwawok on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:42PM (#10996854)
I wish it were a protected word in the states, maybe an Engineering association sitting over it. Would help with things like H1B flooding
Re:San Francisco Bubble by nommm-nommm on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:52PM (#10996935)
Many jurisdictions in the US have protected titles such as "professional engineer" or "licensed engineer." IEEE's position is that "engineer" is an available title for people who have graduated with a degree from an ABET or EAC accredited engineering program and the legally protected titles should remain protected.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by heraclez on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:50PM (#10996914)
As an experienced Canadian developer who is seeking a work visa to work in the US, it is actually extremely difficult to get one.

It seems as though the US prioritizes shit-developers/wannabe-engineers over experienced Canadian developers. Which kind of makes sense, in that you feed your own before feeding your neighbour.

So I really doubt that H1B flooding is a thing. Open to debate though.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by jobu on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:05PM (#10997072)
It's difficult for people like you specifically because of the H1B flooding.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/us/large-companies-game-h-...

"Many of the visas are given out through a lottery, and a small number of giant global outsourcing companies had flooded the system with applications, significantly increasing their chances of success. While he had one application in last year’s lottery and lost, one of the outsourcing companies applied for at least 14,000."

A quick fix would be to award H1B based on salary instead of lottery.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by heraclez on Friday January 29, 2016 @02:28PM (#10997822)
Yes that makes sense. I stand corrected. Thanks for the info!
Re:San Francisco Bubble by popmystack on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:59PM (#10997011)
The first part of your statement doesn't really agree with your last.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by SilasX on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:46PM (#10997443)
On paper, it's the same in the US. In practice, no one cares, and you see the title "Front end engineer" for "guy who tweaks the CSS until the site looks right" and "UX engineer" for "guy who makes pictures of what the product should look like in Photoshop".

I do cringe, though, at the extreme overuse of the term in software; I have two parents who are legit PEs in the US and drilled the distinction in with me.

At the very least, it should be reserved for someone with a broad theoretical and practical background who solves more complicated problems ... but you know how title inflation goes.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by Phlarp on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:02PM (#10997042)
Here in states 23 year old fresh graduates list themselves as "software engineers" on linkedin so they can demand 'senior' level salaries.

We do it because it works...

Re:San Francisco Bubble by adventured on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:26PM (#10996697)
Interest rates aren't going to tick up. The Fed isn't going to raise rates, they're going to cut and launch a new round of QE. That's not even a debate at this point, it's blatantly obvious. Will that end at some point with another asset crash? Maybe, however it's not going to happen soon. The Fed will print your brains out first to support stocks and real-estate. They have a lot of room to abuse the dollar from where it's at today.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by brandur on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:39PM (#10996821)
If I was a betting man, I'd side with you on this one in that low interest rates may be a permanent fixture until the Fed has pushed to the extreme and the system can bend no further.

Can you elaborate on why you think it's "blatantly obvious" though? I can't make any of these types of guesses with high confidence.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by vdnkh on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:22PM (#10996650)
If you have an engineering degree from an accredited program, you're an engineer. If you don't you're not. The US is very lax with usage of the word but in other countries it's classed in the same way "Doctor" is.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by sbov on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:29PM (#10996727)
The funny thing being, most of the best "software engineers" are people without software engineering degrees. Because the practice has existed longer than the degree has.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by heraclez on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:41PM (#10996845)
That's not the reason. If that were the reason, death would swiftly make it so the best engineers are those with degrees.

The reason is because they learned out of innate curiosity and true passion. You always go farther with those.

However, you go even farther with curiosity, passion and a degree.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by theandrewbailey on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:43PM (#10996859)
I guess that the vast majority of "software engineers" of any kind (not just the best) don't have software engineering degrees. Maybe you were thinking computer science degrees?
Re:San Francisco Bubble by bebop on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:37PM (#10997365)
I would even go so far as to say that you are not an engineer until you are a PE. This is coming from a "Software Engineer".
Re:San Francisco Bubble by cylinder on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:09PM (#10997108)
US is very lax with words, in general.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by rorykoehler on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:29PM (#10996730)
The latest is data scientist or even scientist in general. People have realised that marketing and charisma will get them most of the way so they bs and reap the rewards. Sad but true.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by debaserab2 on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:32PM (#10996761)
> I've never written anything that lives in a real production environment

You've never maintained a production app and you're getting offers as director of engineering?

Re:San Francisco Bubble by mikeryan on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:36PM (#10996795)
A good friend (and ex boss) is a VP of engineering at a very large publicly traded "ex-startup" he has no engineering background outside of what he's picked up managing engineering teams (and I've seen him hack around every so often). At the Director or VP level in many companies managing engineers doesn't always mean you're actually an engineer, and in fact you may not want your best engineers in those roles.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by Liuser on Friday January 29, 2016 @02:11PM (#10997663)
I would've thought having technical experience and the ability to get your hands dirty would be a requirement of being VP of Engineering (or similar). Two things that immediately come to mind is the ability to make competent technical decisions and estimate required time/resources required. Strong engineering/technical background is a requirement for the two. How do you even get into this leadership role without having the foundation?

I completely agree that you may not want your best engineers in this role because interfacing with and leading people is a completely separate skill, but I would still think any competent exec with a technical title will have some technical experience.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by themagician on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @08:29PM (#11024136)
Constantly. At least one a month. It's as strange to me as it is to you.

What's worse, the people interviewing me know even less than I do. The patchwork of bullshit runs deep in San Francisco.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by vonmoltke on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:07PM (#10997086)
I have written code full-time for the past 7 years and been an engineer for the past 13, but have never maintained a "production app". There are large numbers of software engineers operating in fields where there is no such concept.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by debaserab2 on Friday January 29, 2016 @03:27PM (#10998235)
What is that exactly? I'm really curious. Presumably the code you write gets used by someone, right?
Re:San Francisco Bubble by api on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:27PM (#10996714)
Tangent but: I doubt the rate raise will stick. They'll probably have to cut it again. I see a "planet Japan" scenario in which global central banks are zero-bound for decades, if not "forever". Rapid growth is over. There are no more frontiers and birth rates are stabilizing. From an ecological point of view the stabilization of birth rates is good, but it basically breaks all the economic assumptions of the past 250+ years. A heavily leveraged credit economy does not work without fairly rapid growth, and until the economy is fundamentally restructured toward something built for a more steady-state mode of operation we'll have to hack it by constantly printing money to prevent deflationary collapse.

The only thing that might change this is something like the opening of the final frontier-- space. But in that case I'm not sure if it would... distances between say Earth and Mars are so vast that any Martian economy would effectively be a separate entity. It might experience rapid growth but I'm not sure if that would translate over here. The Homeworld might still be like Japan-- a zero-bound no-growth economy.

I suppose an AI explosion that wasn't destructive might change things too by creating a lot of new non-corporeal economic entities, but we're well off into sci-fi land here.

Edit: I don't necessarily mean that all forms of "growth" are over. We could still have tremendous growth in knowledge, technological capability, standard of living, and some amount of economic growth. But heavily leveraged inflationary credit economics requires crazy exponential growth in an absolute sense. Without crazy growth it breaks, and the only way to keep it nominally running is to pump money into it to prevent cascading default.

In a sense I think the "pop Austrians" are right that the present system is broken, but they've historically had the failure mode exactly wrong. The failure mode is not hyperinflation-- it's hyperdeflation that's permanently held at bay by money printing ("Japan"). That's because pop Austrians don't get the money multiplier. Almost all money in circulation is credit/debt, not M1. You'd have to print absurd amounts of money and make sure it's distributed more widely than banks to cause a non-localized hyperinflation in a credit economy. (Localized hyperinflation is possible due to bubbles but these usually collapse.)

Of course another way of keeping the illusion alive is to pump up localized credit bubbles repeatedly. These give the illusion to certain sectors or regions that the economy is still growing the way it should... for a while. But then they pop and you need another round of money printing to prevent hyperdeflation. Rinse and repeat. Meanwhile these bubbles distort the price structure of the economy, such as by making housing ridiculous or driving certain commodities crazy.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by pdq on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:47PM (#10996895)
> Tangent but: I doubt the rate raise will stick. They'll probably have to cut it again. I see a "planet Japan" scenario in which global central banks are zero-bound for decades, if not "forever". Rapid growth is over.

Agreed nominal interest rates will likely drop down again to zero to restimulate the economy, but I doubt that will stick for the next decade, as inflation should creep back in forcing the Fed's hand. However, if you believe that "real interest rates" (ie subtracting inflation) will be zero for a long time, I can concur -- currently they are negative.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by api on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:25PM (#10997251)
"Zero-bound" means "at or near zero." Inflation is easy to kill in today's world: just raise interest rates a little tiny bit for a short period of time and the deflationary downdraft will snuff any little inflationary ticks upward. But they'll be forced to drop rates again quickly or we'll fall back into deflation. The instant they raise rates the debt defaults and asset price collapses will start.

Earth is now Japan. Perhaps Mars is the next America.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by matzipan on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:33PM (#10997337)
Earth is not Japan yet. We still have China and India...
Re:San Francisco Bubble by api on Friday January 29, 2016 @02:23PM (#10997773)
China is facing a demographic cliff similar to what happened to Japan after the 80s boom. India and Africa could experience growth for a while but they have major problems, chief among them very deep structural corruption at all levels of society. Even if they can overcome this they will eventually face the same demographic cliff as China today and Japan in the 90s.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by jsprogrammer on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:33PM (#10997335)
0/Near 0 interest is the end-game of fractional reserve banking. Consider the alternative: Rates climb back to 20%. You (and everyone else borrowing) now need to somehow collect an additional 20% (ignoring compounding and early payments) money each year. 1) that's not going to happen unless massive amounts of money are borrowed by lots of people 2) that money must move fast enough (and be continually reborrowed) to make it out to everyone who has an upcoming (very large) interest payment.

The banks are a serious drain on the system. They get to extract percentages from the economy year over year, while contributing nothing (except interest obligations).

Re:San Francisco Bubble by shostack on Friday January 29, 2016 @02:36PM (#10997892)
Do you see a potential solution?
Re:San Francisco Bubble by jsprogrammer on Friday January 29, 2016 @09:33PM (#11000211)
Some type of "normalization" process can probably be used successfully for a while, but more seriously: I think we need to track dependencies; as in, the full supply chain.

Then, perhaps, we try to figure out how to engineer solutions that will guarantee certain certain conditions will be met (e.g. Enough food for every person in an area will make it to that area for everyone there to live satisfactorily).

As the dependencies are mapped out and tracked, it will become obvious which tasks are necessary to fulfill the current economic objectives. Then, it's simply a matter of performing the tasks.

Re:San Francisco Bubble by dragonwriter on Friday January 29, 2016 @01:31PM (#10997311)
Rapid growth doesn't need more economic entities (whether natural or AI), it just needs more production. Rapid increases in productivity with a steady state population suffices to achieve that.
Re:San Francisco Bubble by themagician on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @08:38PM (#11024171)
I appreciate this tangent. There's a lot in here, and well reasoned. slowclap
Re:San Francisco Bubble by lintiness on Friday January 29, 2016 @12:12PM (#10996539)
interest rates are nosediving around the globe as i type. euribor a year out is -.33% BID. us rates are going LOWER.