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Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by patio11 on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:24AM (#10615427)
I can't imagine the in-mission mortality risk of a Mars mission would realistically be less than 5%, and 15% would not be unacceptable to me.

Thus the rationalist Mars mission: send a drone to Mars. Give your five favorite NASA crew members one shot in the head apiece with a fairly spun six shot pistol with one bullet chambered. This accomplishes all of your objectives, is cheaper, and minimizes the danger that the mission architects are underestimating the risk.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by jessriedel on Monday November 23, 2015 @12:09PM (#10615661)
"Rational" is not a property of ends, it is a property of means (and beliefs). All ends are arbitrary.

The robots sent to mars are not useful for any reasonable economic reason. Even insofar as you count speculative basic research as economically useful, there are vastly better ways to spend that money on speculative basic research on Earth.

So why go to Mars? Because either (1) you find the basic research being done about Martian geology particularly compelling or (2) you want to see it explored by humans for its own sake. If you really actually believe in (1), then by all means; send more robots. But I'll bet 100:1 that you personally have no appreciation for the basic science questions, which are mostly very technical and boring. (Hint: grand-seeming questions about life are promoted for publicity and funding reasons, but these are not the ones that actually drive the science, and we are not learning more about the origin of life from going to Mars.)

Rather, I think you'll have to admit we want to go to Mars because it is awesome. You may think sending metal under our control is just as awesome as sending flesh and blood humans, but ultimately this is an aesthetic judgement which is not grounded in rationality. Personally, I would like to see humans walk there, and I'm happy to pay my citizen-share of $100/year over the next decade to make it happen.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by jacquesm on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:02PM (#10616029)
I'd happily invest in SpaceX if they let me. Even if it counts as 'wasted' money in the books of some the simple fact that humanity would aspire to walking on another planet is worth backing. Robot exploration just doesn't feel the same to me. Hearing a 'roger' beep still gives me the willies and I was only 4 when the moonlandings happened. Nothing we did after that was as impressive to me, even though I'm sure it was easier to impress my 4 year old self than it will be to impress me today, walking on Mars would certainly qualify.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by taurath on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:02PM (#10616027)
I think you should work on quantifying the power of "awesome" in terms of increased planetwide hopefulness and collaboration. Optimism itself is a very powerful and meaningful thing to achieve.

Pretending "aesthetics" don't matter and our hardware isn't very significantly designed to respond to emotion is a huge flaw in "purely logical" reasoning. For goodness sake didn't we already cover this in Star Trek TNG?

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by dmfdmf on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:07PM (#10616058)
>"Rational" is not a property of ends, it is a property of means (and beliefs). All ends are arbitrary.

So let's just skip the trip to Mars and spend the money to build high-tech pyramids in the Nevada desert and sacrifice virgins.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by anigbrowl on Monday November 23, 2015 @02:24PM (#10616626)
Isn't that the whole point of Las Vegas?
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by the8472 on Monday November 23, 2015 @04:39PM (#10617499)
One justification for space exploration is to eventually colonize space as a means of decentralization.

It's still far off in the future, but we have to take one step at a time. One of those steps will be sending people on a mission there with a return ticket, eventually establish a continuously manned research base etc. etc.

So there still may be some utility in the long run.

Of course there might be other approaches to bootstrap space colonization, such as the idea of mining asteroids in orbit and maybe sending people up there in the process.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by jessriedel on Monday November 23, 2015 @04:59PM (#10617631)
Unfortunately, the thing holding us back from space colonization is not transport, but the technology to make colonies self-sustaining (or at least net economically profitable, even if tied to Earth by an umbilical cord of re-supply). Space transport is a much simpler problem, and investing in it will not much help space colonization.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by aggie on Tuesday November 24, 2015 @06:00PM (#10624206)
Transportation is exactly the technology needed to make colonies economically feasible. And as you say, an 'umbilical cord' will surely be necessary for the first colonies -- this is also a problem of transportation.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by hoorayimhelping on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:42AM (#10615510)
But it completely ignores the main reason we do this: because we're humans and we're not rational. We have irrational emotions, and we think symbolically. Sending a human to Mars and bringing them back is way less about actually going to Mars and back and way more about humanity making sure we can still beat challenges that face us.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by brianberns on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:31AM (#10615461)
We've already sent a number of drones to Mars. There are rational reasons for wanting to send humans as well: Humans can do things on Mars that drones cannot, and they pave the way for possible colonization in the future.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by _fizz_buzz_ on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:41AM (#10615500)
> Humans can do things on Mars that drones cannot

Such as? The only thing I can think of is that they can test if the human body can endure life on Mars. Honestly, as cool as sending people to mars is, I don't think it is an idea driven by rationality at this point.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by todayiamme on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:59AM (#10615601)
The dexterity of the human body really should not be underestimated. A human being can perform relatively complex analysis in a lab precisely because s/he can move the samples around and whack the equipment a bit if it gets stuck. If you want a robot to do that without getting stuck - ever, then that becomes extremely expensive or you figure out a way to do it in a single chamber like the viking lander did, which is still way more expensive and starts ruling out more complicated forms of analysis. If some element of this mission breaks down, then the human being can also do in-field repairs - something that even the most sophisticated robots of our time can't do.

Beyond picking up rocks, the human can traverse the terrain more easily and s/he can climb up and down really steep slopes - even ones at a nearly 90˚ angle. Whether you'd want the human to do that due to safety concerns on an alien world is another matter, but the amount of terrain accessible to this being is far larger than most billion dollar robots.

Oh and the human being does all of this while being powered on tuna sandwiches. They might be expensive to send to Mars, but once they're there humans can explore a larger area than all rover missions combined in a single mission.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by _fizz_buzz_ on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:26PM (#10616203)
> Oh and the human being does all of this while being powered on tuna sandwiches.

and water and balanced nutrition and oxygen and a very narrow temperature operating range and a very short hibernate mode (cannot really go without water/food for an extended time) and have to sleep every day and sensitive to radiation and cannot operate in low pressure and need to defecate and urinate etc.

A drone/robot can be run on solar power. If there isn't enough energy it can go into hibernate mode for months. And you also have to take into account that a manned mission is planned for something like 2030. Robotics is such a rapidly evolving field that by then they will be so much more sophisticated than today.

Don't get me wrong. I think sending people to Mars will be awesome and inspiring. But I think it wouldn't be a rational decision.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by thescriptkiddie on Monday November 23, 2015 @03:03PM (#10616909)
Robots can't reproduce. They can't repair themselves. They can't even fix each other. One day in the distant future we'll build robots that can do those things, I'm certain of it, and then we can build planet-colonizing robot swarms. But even then, the most useful thing they will be able to do is prepare for the arrival of humans. Robots won't be ready to replace humans for the purposes of science and exploration until they're ready to replace us altogether, which is a long way off yet.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by Retric on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:03PM (#10616030)
Sending 1 human to mars requires on the order of 20+ tons of equipment at a minimum, plus consumables. That's a lot of robots, so even if a human was 100 times better than the opportunity rover, sending rovers would still be a better bet. Worse there is a large risk they die before doing anything.

If anything Mars is a great opportunity for automation. It has no environment to destroy and with the right design it could end up exporting a constant stream of goods to humanity with zero environmental cost. Nuclear waste for example is a non issue. We could even try things like a space elevator on mars without risk of harming people on earth.

PS: For comparison the lunar lander weighed ~36,200 pounds and needed a lot less thrust to get into lunar orbit.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by anigbrowl on Monday November 23, 2015 @02:27PM (#10616661)
What goods would you expect to retrieve from Mars? Or do you mean that it would be a great place to locate industry that would create unacceptably high pollution on earth?
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by Retric on Monday November 23, 2015 @02:49PM (#10616821)
In theory, you send one von Neumann machine and in a few years it has a planets worth of manufacturing to send you anything you want. Sure, shipping would be energy intensive, and you only get ~59% as much solar energy to work with. However, the equivalent of a 2 million meter x 2 million meter solar farm could produce a lot of energy.

Assuming space elevators, you could replace the vast majority of earth manufacturing. Though, with a long lag time before arrival.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by anigbrowl on Monday November 23, 2015 @02:20PM (#10616608)
That's absolutely true, but I think the hesitancy about sending humans to Mars is that it is such a desert, and so the payoff will be quite limited to most people besides geologists. From the point of view of the general public, it's cool that its on another planet and we could do interesting science, but realistically it doesn't seem worth colonizing.

This is one reason that Europa excites the public imagination despite the hideous problems of distance and proximity to a gas giant - that moon appears to have a thick crust of ice covering a liquid ocean, and thus the prospect of life - possibly alien life, possibly a means of maintaining human life.

If we found evidence of life, even fairly primitive life, there would be plenty of money and public support to study it (though not without controversy). Rocks and canyons, not so much.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by percent on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:03PM (#10616034)
<The dexterity of the human body really should not be underestimated.

This is a great point. I haven't studied this topic much, but on the surface it seems to me investing these resources into robotics technology is more interesting. Why can't we have a robot that can do such things? I think we can.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by saiya-jin on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:52AM (#10615565)
I presume more complex experiments on site, that take time and gave a lot of steps and decisions to be taken. of course this also can be automated, and probably at lower cost overall minus potential casualties, but then there is irrational/emotional aspect to getting to a different planet, which is perceived as major milestone in mankind's aspirations.

mountaineers also go to potentially deadly situations voluntarily, just because the those peaks "are there". nobody gets satisfied enough from someone's else photos and says "nah, that's enough of an experience for me", albeit view doesn't offer much more. Neither they do send drones up there instead of them :) (btw that would be a nice use case for some remote high-adrenaline-vr gaming with androids!)

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by gambiting on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:46PM (#10616361)
To think of the simplest and silliest example - you can get a shovel and dig as deep as realistically possible. Even our most advanced rovers dig hilariously shallow holes(due to technical limitations) and our science would be improved tenfold if we could simply roll over a couple rocks and punch a few holes through the ground.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by kllrnohj on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:19PM (#10616153)
Until we have AI (since remote control doesn't work in this case) and far, faaaar better robotics, humans are vastly superior to have on Mars. Well, if they're alive, anyway.

See also: You can probably do things a roomba can't.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by dinosammy on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:49AM (#10615551)
Humans on mars would inspire future generations with dreams of space travel, which will make them more likely to support higher levels of NASA funding?
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by jcranmer on Monday November 23, 2015 @12:19PM (#10615721)
You mean like how landing on the moon did wonders for NASA's budget?
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by eric_h on Monday November 23, 2015 @12:54PM (#10615984)
More like how the landing on the moon spawned SpaceX, Scaled Composites, etc. - It made people keep shooting for the moon.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by TeMPOraL on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:05PM (#10616049)
Sadly, the more useful something is, the more it is underfunded.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by Fiahil on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:51AM (#10615560)
>> Humans can do things on Mars that drones cannot

> Such as?

Growing potatoes?

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by odonnellryan on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:40PM (#10616316)
The technology required to send people to Mars is not in itself worthless. The motivator is sending people to Mars.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by yongjik on Monday November 23, 2015 @05:52PM (#10617935)
A hypothetical human on Mars can do things that the drones we currently have in Mars cannot.

A more interesting question is: how much does it cost to send people to Mars, and if we use the same amount of money to send more robotic probes, what can a hypothetical Martian astronaut do that (equally hypothetical) Martian drone armies cannot.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by jaredhansen on Monday November 23, 2015 @01:52PM (#10616413)
>this accomplishes all of your objectives

No, it doesn't. It doesn't at all! Establishing human presence on Mars is one of the core objectives of the whole program. It's one of the reasons we care about Mars. Hell, moving gradually toward making additional homes for human beings is part of why we do space exploration in general. Yes, you can gather rocks via robots and send back data and whatever else, but to claim that doing so exhausts the set of reasonable objectives for Mars missions is just silly.

Here's a thought experiment to confirm: How many probes have we flown to how many planets in the solar system? Any idea, roughly, when the first one happened, or the last? You may know, but most folks have no idea. Conversely: where in the solar system have humans been? Any idea when we first got there, or when the last trip was? Unlike all the many highly valuable probe missions we've sent, here, most people actually know something about it. This is because people care about other people and their experiences, in a way that they don't care about scientific results as such. Putting human beings on other worlds is an end in itself, and it is simply not accomplished by sending drones instead.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by smeyer on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:29AM (#10615452)
The general claim is that your argument is flawed in "this accomplishes all of your objectives". I don't claim to be an expert in the field, but I've heard people who do care about and practice planetary and martian science that a manned mission could accomplish more than all the previous unmanned missions combined.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by mapt on Monday November 23, 2015 @12:11PM (#10615675)
Some of the lectures I've seen actually peg this as true, but for the wrong reason.

It is possible to put together automated missions at-scale. But not likely. Because auditors can trim back an automated mission's scope smoothly, no matter how expansive it is, in order to save money. A slightly lighter, cheaper camera, gives way to an even more slightly lighter, cheaper camera, ad infinitum. A hundred units give way to 99 units give way to 30 units give way to 1 unit. But if you try to do that with a manned mission, you start to jeopardize the public heroes you have sensationalized in order to fund the mission. You don't get to send half a human being to Mars.

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by nabla9 on Monday November 23, 2015 @12:11PM (#10615670)
That could be true and manned mission can still be irrational choice.

All manned missions arguments I have seen are somewhat coy in this respect. Yes, geologist can make better choices on spot and take better samples than current drones, but that's not real comparison.

We should compare alternative strategies using opportunity cost.

The money used for manned mission could be used for massive fleet of of drones, satellites and technical development. Missions could be more incremental and cover more areas. Self driving cars are just taking off on earth. How does advance fleet of Mars robocars and satellites mapping Mars compare to manned mission?

Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by analyst74 on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:43AM (#10615511)
with the speed of robotics advancement, compared to advancement in material science and human preservation technologies, we actually might have a team of base-building Martian robots before being able to send astronauts there.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by hfourm on Monday November 23, 2015 @12:02PM (#10615617)
This probably makes the most sense. I still see sending a human to Mars as a likely precursor though. If we prove it is possible, alongside the advancements that come from the missions, would hopefully dramatically increase NASA fandom and funding.
Re:NASA not ready for dangers of deep space, auditors say by frandroid on Monday November 23, 2015 @11:45AM (#10615525)
Maybe a drone can build Starfighter too...