Ask HN: What are the most important formulas for life decisions?
Examples: Bayes Theorem, Compound Interest, Kelly Criterion…
yqsk
Trying hard or: How I learned to love Chess.com's freemium puzzles
Re:“Blue Light” creating capacity for nothing (2007)
on Tuesday December 27, 2022 @07:02PM (#34155647)
Is ChatGPT the helper or the welder?
Re:Show HN: Noctie – A chess AI that predicts your rating
on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @10:08AM (#33720050)
It guessed my lichess almost rating exactly. Impressive!
Shopify Tries to Fight Buy with Prime
How canine heart disease was tied to grain-free dog food
Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
on Monday July 18, 2022 @09:12PM (#32146248)
Lol
Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
on Monday July 18, 2022 @08:12PM (#32145834)
Sorry! It's back!
Had to upgrade my firebase plan...
Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
on Monday July 18, 2022 @08:05PM (#32145780)
Yep
I was using it as the database to track results, but I guess we went over the limit. Fun problem to have! But it's back up.
Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
on Monday July 18, 2022 @08:03PM (#32145772)
Thanks! It's Sveltekit + Tailwind. Hosted on Netlify.
I'm not a developer, so it's a real testament to how good and simple a framework SvelteKit.
Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
on Monday July 18, 2022 @06:32PM (#32144913)
Inspired by Matt Levine's awesome reporting on the Elon/Twitter purchase fiasco. Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity.
Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
Re:When you type realty.com into Safari it takes you to realtor.com
on Thursday June 25, 2020 @06:29PM (#23646506)
Replicated on my iPhone
Re:Statistical paradoxes for sharping your Bayesian skills
on Friday December 13, 2019 @02:31PM (#21784581)
For those looking for the simple to understand solutions:
Bertrand’s box paradox:
The trick here is that you are not actually drawing a card, but a card side. There are 3 cards, but each card has two sides so there are 6 card sides and half of those sides are white.
So, now we have to pick one of the 3 white card sides at random. Of those 3, 2 have white on the other side and one has black. Therefore, if you pick a white side at random, there is a 2/3 chance that it is white on the other side.
Monty Hall Problem:
Say you're going to switch no matter what. Then the only way you can lose is if you pick the right door on your first try - a 1/3 chance. Conversely, as long as you pick either of two wrong doors first you win. Therefore, you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch vs a 1/3 chance if you stick with your original pick.