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s-kymon

you're right on growth being excluded, which is why I said the analysis is imperfect.
The quote comes from Ben Graham and it goes "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine"

You're confusing market share with not valuation. Also, look into business cycle theory from marathon asset management.

The four most dangerous words in finance "this time is different"

In an April 2002 interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Scott McNealy, then CEO of Sun Microsystems, reflected on investors paying 10x revenue for Sun stock at its dot-com peak ($64/share in 2000):

At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don't need any transparency. You don't need any footnotes. What were you thinking?

Now this analysis is imperfect... but it's good enough.

For reference Cloudflare trades at 39x revenue

Re:Warren Buffett dumps $1.7B of Amazon stock on Wednesday February 18, 2026 @02:11PM (#47064992)
Also these are year end portfolio changes, so could very well be Warren.
Re:Gemini 3 Deep Think on Thursday February 12, 2026 @01:52PM (#46993273)
It's not about how much you earn. It's about what you're worth.
Re:Miami, Your Waymo Ride Is Ready on Thursday January 22, 2026 @12:35PM (#46722455)
miami beach is a different city = different laws and regulations
Re:Shiller PE Ratio on Thursday September 25, 2025 @10:45AM (#45373233)
We broke 40 earlier this month. Historically these levels portend negative 10 year real returns.

https://x.com/s_kymon/status/1971224323554935283

Re:Airbnb Is in Midlife Crisis Mode on Wednesday May 14, 2025 @09:17AM (#43984182)
I'm dealing with this right now and it has definitely shifted my perception of the platform
I thought it was a train or truck going by