paulmist

Openrouter is a terrible proxy for frontier, token leaderboards are dominated by fast models like Deepseek 4.1 or Luna 6.

> Winner right now is Codex by a mile

Opposite in my experience. I need to limit codex to 500k on medium/low, still run out in 2-3 days with 1 CLI window. CC gives me 4-5 medium/high days with 2-3 CLI windows, and Opus is still great for other regular dumb engineering/refactoring.

On the other hand my head starts to hurt if I read Opus for too long, hopefully they fixed it with 5.5.

I think that such fine-tuning hinges on what do you consider to be a mistake, which is context dependent. Having task-specific finetuned models goes against the status quo of generalization/centralization where few large companies serve a limited amount of models efficiently - both due to inference efficiency and the need/want to control the model.

Having a human-like LLM ecosystem with deep specialization requires a paradigm change in how LLMs are trained - and held accountable. How do we put trust in a specific finetuned LLM rather than the institution behind it? Is there any better approach than the very inefficient evolutionary?

In Europe I don't think it's commonly done. For example, the standard Dutch MSM STI test [1] covers HIV, Syphilis, Chlamydia, and Gonorrhoea only while Trichomoniasis, HPV 2 and Herpes are rather common. That being said, it's freely available at most hospitals.

[1] https://www.mantotman.nl/

Definitely a rough estimate! I recon base rate is also higher amongst military personnel & it’s not uniformly distributed there either.

Assuming a predominantly male population, the suicide rate should be around 20 per 100000 per year. 5 people in a month gives 18x higher rate. Too short period to draw any statistical conclusions but it’s a large blip.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but all of the aforementioned advances were made in the last year? Until very recently few people had access to these tools. Most people still don't know how to use ChatGPT, and very few use tools like CC regularily. If in a few years these frontier tools become commonplace and people upskill we would should see a network effect?

I love this video on Tay

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsLup7yy-6I

Even better, Qimonda was ultimately bought (alongside all their patents) by SMIC [1] who is now the Chinese memory player. For 30 million.

[1] https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/chinas-cxmt-is-set-to-...

IIRC Taiwan took a page out of Singapore's playbook and went all in on electrical engineering and adjecent fields. It was very much a long-term strategy. Germany probably didn't feel nearly as much pressure, and was already very strong in all industry.

> “Semiconductors, physical AI, and AI data centers are the triple axis for a great leap forward.”

Not the best wording... I wonder how serious this announcement is.

Personal anecdote on ROI - I was at an early stage startup earlier this year where we had some burstable long-running GPU tasks (<100 VMs). Accross GCP and OCI we couldn't get our hands on L40S on-demand, and had to resort to T4s (released 2018). Sometimes even these were unavailable, and we would have a P4 (2016!) fallback. AWS sells A100s (2020) at $4/hr except they don't even have capacity for x1 versions, you have to rent x8.

I think you're confounding streaming with the rise of solo-queue but cooperative (CS:GO, LoL...) games around 2010. Both were enabled by cheaper computing and alllowed competitive ladders to scale to millions of players. Games where you have to queue with a pre-made team (or pro teams for that matter) are considerably less toxic. Toxic streamers are more of a consequence of an already toxic community.

I think that's a normal evolution of these games? In the end they are cooperative so your teammates depend on you. Although you'll find plenty of people at the top of the ladder spamming werid strategies and being successful.

I wonder if we'll start seeing Amazon/Google/Apple completely verticalize their chip production (TPU/Tranium/M series/Graviton...) and buy (parts of) Intel. Their capex is already a trillion a year, surely it'd make sense to compete with TSMC/Samsung/SK Hynix?

Can anyone suggest some ways to understand automation trends in manufacturing? Watching factory tours on youtube has been super interesting.

Do you think humanoids would be a fit on assemblying the assembly line itself? To my limited knowledge a lot of setting up the factory is making sure your line works as expected with X 9s reliability. Here dexterous humanoids are this _universal_ virtual-to-physical interface and, akin to Auto Research, could run assembly line experiments autonomosuly?

I first saw Noam on Dwarkesh’s podcast together with Jeff Dean. Recommend if you want a taste of what’s Google’s folks take on things.

https://youtu.be/v0gjI__RyCY?is=nz77XP4KiJy7L1AX

According to IEA[1] most capacity in Europe is from South Korean companies.

[1] https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/share-of-manu...

Aren't biggest Qwen 3.7 closed? I don't suspect China's policy here would be anything but ruthless.

It shows the same for this thread.

https://imgur.com/a/EOWWUbD

I do agree with the skepticism in this thread. But, if we assume Fable/Mythos really are that good (=easy to misuse) and thep keep getting better, what similar responses (signals) would you expect to see going forwards?

Knowing the question is half of the answer. LLMs are great at scoping your context and answering precisely what you asked; it's also why they go off the rails when they misunderstand a part of your question. Incidentally, they're great at "knowing" and reaching for knowledge.

Humans have the advantage of perspective. We always lack some knowledge and answer broadly. This is bad if you have a particular goal in mind, but better if you're just generally learning, because you see more and learn to discriminate the correct from the wrong. And most importantly, being wrong is part of human ingenuity - because sometimes we turn something "obviously" wrong into something right.

Why would it kill PC? There will always be hobbyists, e.g. I can't imagine pro e-sports players running on a Mac. Personally, half of the reason I moved away from Windows is Microsoft stalling/degrading Windows experience.

I think it's the opposite. Sure in short term hobbyists are getting squeezed, but the amount of capital that they can put into pushing the edge is small compared to Fortune 500. Sooner or later hobbyists will benefit, especially if the market crashes.

Can you give some context the grad student union and how it intends to fight the explotatiove nature of the academia?

At $15/GB of HBM4 the 331.8TB of HBM4 per pod is 5 million...

I think author's point is that wealth drives investment which drives economic growth. In the case of lavish funerals - warranted in kinship societies - the wealth is spent on relatively unproductive investments bearing high opportunity cost. The corollary and author's secondary point is the ineffective resource allocation e.g. through nepotism.

My main (oversimplified!) takeaway from the article is that kinship societies prioritize inherently local processes that inhibit global processes. For example, they prefer keeping internal cohesion through ritual celebration rather than maximizing economic upside through education and specialization. This makes sense - the latter requires a higher degree of trust and stability. Increasing the degree of trust and stability seems to be an evolutionary process. I found Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel [1] to give some amazing insights about this.

[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1842.Guns_Germs_and_Stee...

In the Netherlands dental service prices are set by the government [1]. Under 18 are universally covered by basic health insurance; for adults average dental for regular work + emergency is 30/month.

[1] https://puc.overheid.nl/nza/doc/PUC_789284_22/1/