franl

“X is the worst thing ever! No, X is the best thing since sliced bread!” As with most similar things in life, the truth is probably somewhere in between. I enjoyed the post because it called out both legitimate order of magnitude speed ups from AI for the author, but also pointed out the inherent bottlenecks in software development that make large overall jumps in output more difficult. These broader conversations are also unfortunately lacking a shared context and set of standards. AKA person A’s bar for acceptable output may not be the same as person B’s. I too am tired of hearing about extreme productivity gains from second hand or third hand accounts. It’s like a hype fueled game of telephone. Finally, just a reminder that two things can be true: 1. A technology can be amazing and useful but 2. Over hyped at the same time.

I thought the same initially but that is demo’ng translation. She’s speaking in one language and the glasses are showing the English translation. Maybe not great UX either way since it is covering her face but that’s another story.

Bingo re dopamine!

Check out the book Dopamine Nation by Anna Lembke to see why this might be happening. I think she also has a YouTube video with Andrew Huberman going over the same material.

Found the video where Russ says he was making around $100k per month before any label involvement: https://youtu.be/OebNTkTfzHU. I know this is the land of “that’s just survivorship bias!” And I certainly agree that luck and timing plays a massive role in billionaire level startup success, but this guy in particular is a few orders of magnitude of success below that (even if he’s still an outlier). I’m sure he still benefited from luck and timing, but he also was methodical about creating music non-stop, getting better at production, rapping, and writing, and marketing himself. My point being show me someone who has worked as hard and as smart as he has, who picked a niche of music that has large audiences (aka high Total Addressable Market), and who released as much content as him, and I will show you someone who is having non-trivial streaming success - again maybe not $1M+ annually. That doesn’t mean Big Tech is absolved of sin in how it distributes profits or exerts monopoly control or whatever, but I think we often overlook the opportunities these networks have provided for people that would otherwise live in obscurity with no audience whatsoever.

Here you go, he mentions it in the first 30 seconds of this video. He says roughly $100k per month before any label involvement: https://youtu.be/OebNTkTfzHU

I can’t find the article from before he signed with Columbia (might’ve been a YouTube interview with him, can’t remember for sure), but yes, I’m fairly certain he was doing well over 5k per month with no major label.

Also note the terms of his deal with Columbia are unlike most major deals in that he has a 50/50 profit split after his advance payment got recouped, retains either full control or 50/50 control of masters, etc.

> Another opinion popular with no one: AI will have on artists the same impact that Spotify had on the music industry that is, it will kill any revenue flow for anyone outside of the publishers and big artists/players.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding you, but how much money do you think the 7500 creators on Spotify making $100k+ [1] would be making without Spotify or other streaming platforms? My guess is closer to zero than 100k.

Also 0.09 percent of 8 million creators making 100k+ [1] sounds horrible, but my guess is that should be taken with a grain of salt. How many folks are included in that 8 million who registered, but uploaded nothing? How many uploaded once or twice? How many uploaded and did ZERO promo of themselves? How many are just plain terrible musicians?

A number of years ago when I stumbled on him, Russ was pulling in a few hundred thousand per year from streaming. Looks like he’s making 100k per week as of a couple of years ago [2]. Yes, he’s probably an outlier. But he works his butt off on his craft, handles production and writing himself, and markets himself well.

Headlines like “Big tech and AI destroying the indie music industry” get more clicks and attention than “Streaming platforms provide income where once there was none” so shrug.

[1] https://www.digitalmusicnews.com/2021/02/24/spotify-artist-e... [2] https://twitter.com/russdiemon/status/1325853093074923520

Russ

EDIT: Not making Taylor Swift money, but not many are

What are some examples of this type of decentralization scenario playing out before? What you’re saying makes sense to me, but my hope would be that the decentralization would serve more as a supplement than a replacement - therefore still requiring ongoing maintenance and investment to main infra. The alternative without these microgrids and other microinfra is almost guaranteed to result in the half or fully rotten systems you predict as the prevailing recent political climate doesn’t give much confidence in terms of getting such massive projects planned and completed successfully (US-centric response).

Rich is obviously very relative, but for many reading on this site, $300-400k is a reasonable home price (the price cited in the article). And the couple in the article paid even less. “The couple, who paid in the low $200,000s for their 1,350-square-foot, three-bedroom home, moved into the community last July.”

Which behavioral changes got you there?

Just wait until XXQ adopts the same AI technology to keep the AI-using company’s business. Then the AI can simply coordinate with one another, and make the appropriate changes faster than currently possible. Microsoft is well positioned to do something like this and already working toward this end to end collaborative AI.

Is it even possible to fully turn off a Kindle anymore? I want to do exactly what you’re saying to prevent the draining of the battery, but the only options that appear after holding the power button are “Cancel” “Restart” and “Screen Off”. Holding the power button longer just seems to restart the device :/

Who said anything about a full fuel switch? All I’m talking about is your claim that this technology will never happen. I shared an article with potential workarounds. And sure, it still might not work long term. But that’s impossible for you to say with certainty. I have no horse in this race aside from being a human that would benefit from low cost energy. I know nothing about fusion beyond what I read in that article, and a few others before it. You can call me names all you want, but that doesn’t change how innovation works. Something is impossible until it isn’t. Many have come before you with similar attitudes with other seemingly impossible technologies, and have been proven wrong in unexpected ways. I’m not waving my hands and saying “this will definitely happen!” I’m saying it could happen, vs you saying it’s a certainty NOT to happen. And again, I’m talking about the technology itself, not the geopolitical, infrastructure, economic, etc. issues around it.

Your pessimistic take got me researching. Here’s a great article that describes the issue and some potential workarounds: https://www.science.org/content/article/fusion-power-may-run.... Your assumption rests on the fact that the “winning” tech will use tritium. And yes, maybe that’s the most viable path, leading you to your take. But it seems there are viable paths forward with and without tritium.

This one is a few years old, but seems interesting: https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.05799v2

I too would like to go down this rabbit hole. I am going to poke around using the terms “distributed learning” and “federated learning” (They’re different areas, but somewhat related as far as I understand).

Has she looked into EMDR therapy?

Yeah you might be right. There are “weirdos” like me who power it on and off every day though :) Who knows what their rationale truly was, just seems like a case where the bad physical UX of a huge screen on a phone was compensated for by placing a button in a non-standard location. Oh and the power button is also used to quickly lock the screen, so that’s something probably used more often than turning the device on/off.

Probably because phones are massive now, and the side is the only place the power button can be pressed while holding the phone with one hand.

What’s your take on all the new vehicles these days with their auto engine start/stop and cylinder deactivation tech? I can’t imagine these will make for dependable used vehicles. I believe Honda settled a class action suit related to their Variable Cylinder Management tech (https://www.autoblog.com/2013/10/23/honda-settles-class-acti...). Even current owners are still complaining of issues. It was enough to put me off from buying a V6 Honda.

I thought excess glutamine was associated with neuroticism, anxiety, depression, etc., and that there was a positive correlation between glutamine levels and depression [1]? Do you think in your case maybe you have naturally very low levels of glutamine, making supplementation helpful?

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41398-019-0500-z

Yep, makes sense. A little nitpick: I wouldn’t call it a Black Swan because multiple people called out the potential for such a global event to happen (Gates, Taleb, etc.), but to your point it certainly further accelerated the move to online commerce, mainstream remote work, etc. Cloudflare and Stripe are/were both well positioned for that type of world.