OgsyedIE

The reentry time and place is uncertain and predictions are publicised here:

https://aerospace.org/reentries/28485

As the predictions get more confident the page will automatically update to show the more precise predicted reentry path.

Han China, NK and Myanmar but they aren't culturally relevant, also technically Russia but they are really just a racist herrenvolk democracy.

The problem with partisan politics is that no part of it is able to admit that both 90% of Al Jazeera and 90% of Radio Free Asia are the unvarnished truth at the same time.

The problems he describes all fit into three buckets

* Insurance industry rent-seeking

* Ennui (literal definition: not getting enough mental sustenance from things that previously gave enough)

* Symptoms of grossly rising population densities (most of the complaints raised there)

I don't want to relitigate Malthusianism but the laws of supply and demand do apply to the space we occupy and would like to roam around in as much as anything else. With food scarcity mostly abolished (until this year incidentally, the 2026/27 winter will be terribly bad for humanity) the Malthusian pressures all went away, leaving the human race to operate inside of the overshoot loop dynamical system instead:

https://jayhansonsdieoff.net/overshoot-loop-evolution-under-...

The comments at time of writing are blissfully ignorant of the European political culture inside and outside of the EU.

On the one hand, there are only politicians available in two kinds: those who insist on blindly glazing the US regardless of the harm it does to Europe and those who insist on blindly glazing the Russia/China/Iran axis regardless of the harm it does to Europe. All of them occasionally implement one-off military spending programs while permitting long term trends of worse military, energy, machine tools, infrastructure, mining, smelting and reserve readiness spending.

In Italy, Spain, Austria, Romania, Sweden and Britain (the six cases I'm familiar with, three from business travel, one from holidaying and two from deep interest) the occasional politician (one person country per 3-5 years) who does want Europe to have independent expeditionary military partnering with Africa and the Middle East, totally disconnected from either superpower bloc and their goods, services, politics and ideologies is ridiculed up until they say something negative about [emotional support ethnostate of either bloc, they both have them], at which point they are dealt with through lawfare, debanking, travel bans and intimidation of their families.

.

It is entirely predictable given the history of Europe. Sovereignty in Europe was dismantled by the US and Russia over the 20th century, the 1944 conferences being the most irreversible moment, and it can only recover if they both implode, not just one. Neither of them are imploding at the present time.

Adapting, avoiding being squeezed, these are the loser options of a bully victim whining that they aren't being left alone. Keeping to the metaphor of a bully, you're only worth leaving alone the minute you die and not a moment before, and the world is run by bullies. Using a more unsanitised and true metaphor, dogs and wolves get a dopamine-reward signal in their ventral striatum when they hear the prey animal in their jaws squeal.

The writing level of your comment history is between 7th and 8th grade and you appear to be totally unaware of the field of forecasting or the fact that LLMs are benchmarked on it, which suggests that of whatever holes there may be in my above comment, it'll only be somebody who isn't you that could say what they are.

Furthermore, a simple test of whether I typed out my above comment by hand (as I did) is whether each word is syntactically correct. The word rug-pulling is correct but I did not use it because I prefer the way rugpulling sounds inside the inner monologue as I type it. LLMs, however, are insistent on having perfect syntax, grammar and semantics, even if they keep fucking up the pragmatics.

The deletion of place names, roads, business labels, etc throughout the southern half of Lebanon suggests that there's basically no way ignorance is involved.

Are insurance firms wargaming the possibility of tech CEOs being invited to Brazil, Indonesia, etc as part of a grand investment summit only to have their persons and legal teams be arrested on arrival in a rugpull, whether the rugpulling country locks them up or dismembers them? Are flight corridors being specially set up to prevent fighter plane interception?

It's less ridiculous than you think. Surveying five frontier LLMs just now four of them gave a probability above 20% that it may happen this quarter.

Given the many instances of crooks trying to stay in office to maintain immunity, I propose a quasi-Greek solution.

Total amnesty for any and all crimes before the date of election and outlaw (hostis humani generis) for any and all crimes afterwards. It'll encourage people to be very afraid of accepting the job.

Every high friction system that doesn't involve manual approval line-by-line is vulnerable to LLM circumvention and most of the ones that do are still also vulnerable to it, as long as the users of the end product are financially viable to prey upon. Also, if a game feels like work, most players will go find a different game, leaving only a narrow playerbase possessing certain personality traits. That kind of narrow playerbase has no reason to ever worry about a shortage of human wiki curation.

We can put these together to conclude that every game and community that lacks that kind of dedication will die out and be replaced by psychologically personalized short-form dopamine-agonist videos, as exemplified in an infamous comic:

https://x.com/Merryweatherey/status/1395152040389713922

I initially bounced off the parts of this essay that deal with the theory of ideas and assumed that part was just a tangent to spice up an overlong typology of crises but on coming back to it after reading some Hume I consider the theory of ideas articulated here is an excellent start to treating the method of creating new ideas mechanically as a process to conduct step-by-step.

The phrase "ideas are cannibals" implies that we should think of new ideas we have as eating old ideas we have, but that's a myopic reading, even if the syntax suggests it. Ideas that we have can eat ideas that anybody else has, anybody else's market share, anybody else's PMF.

If you haven't read the link and are confused by the content of this comment, rest assured it makes a lot of sense in context.

The book you want in this case is Gross, Yellen & Anderson, Graph Theory and its Applications, 3rd Edition.

There are plenty of ways to get a copy.

I saw a write-up here which omits the issue that is completely critical for any PXE Boot situation and otherwise nothing: https://arstechnica.com/security/2026/10/code-execution-flaw...

I've never willingly had anything I'm responsible for use any kind of PXE Boot but I've worked with people who have and this alone is basically a way to ruin their entire year. If you are one such person, good luck.

Gowdy, J., 2020

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001632871...

There was constant change in the palaeolithic, change of the form "which tribe controls which valley" and no further. The range of possible changes is gonna shrink back to that small range without a stable climate and/or a solid tech foundation.

Part of the purpose of rigorous education is to make sure that students are competent for the academic labor force, but that's only half of the story. The other purpose is to preserve existing knowledge and prevent its loss to the force of entropy eating away at texts, files and neurons. If there's no preservation of knowledge in the academic form anymore we have no choice but to rely on AI, which has a massive downside:

In the event that the cascading metal mining yield declines aren't solved by new tech and we do lose AI, we are now in the state that we will probably also lose calculus, liberalism and the ability to design a steam engine.

Everybody with any interest in their work not being ephemeral and out of their control should self-host it and syndicate it elsewhere. I believe the acronym other prosyletisers of this approach use is POSSE but what's important is that the idea is made into a consistent best practice.

Costs aren't just up on the shocks of this year. The daily production of all diesel and jet fuel per capita has been declining month on month since 2008.

The per capita part is very important to explaining the figure, don't ignore it, but if you break oil (and related products like kerogen, bitumen and NGL) into light, medium and heavy we hit peak medium oil in 2008.

"You're going to begin to see demand destruction based on the pricing environment." - Bob Jordan, CEO of Southwest Airlines, April 23rd

Wouldn't this be attributable to the change in international agreements about bunker fuel composition to have massively less sulfur?

The UK populace has immense opposition to Westminster's handling of the events because of a great lack of transparency.

If they were told the truth (that the country has to do what the White House says or else the new blackshirts do to Downing Street as they've recently rehearsed in Southampton, Belfast, Rotherham and Hull, plus the UK police and troop numbers are too small to affect the outcome) they could start to think more realistically about the situation.

Felt it on and off when I was young but haven't had anything even remotely like it for almost two decades now and my life is better than ever tbh which is probably why.

My brother's friend attempted recently however and AFAIK in that one case it's because of him having poor job prospects. I reckon the data should be disaggregated into full time employed suicides and all other employment status suicides to get a good idea of what is going on.

The above account was created 1 minute before posting the above comment

Don't take the assumption of Chinese knowledge of pinch points that seriously. ASML is the end user of a production chain spanning 9,000+ companies, it's amazing it hasn't broken from just jet fuel prices.

Long term thinking is pretty bad too tbh when you dig in at what the different schools of thought imagine about the drivers of politics.

The electoral constituencies for the antinomianism, authoritarianism and victim-complex revanchism in the West that has prevented friendship between the world powers are all comprised of the same alliance between two groups repeated hundreds of times: moderately impoverished populist masses facing more of the same and industry oligarchs looking to return the west to feudal plantation economies as reprisal for any cultural slights they feel the public has given them.

The latter group always exists to some extent but the former group only exists because disposable energy (joules, watts, BTU, etc) per capita has been steadily falling since 1973. The golden age of shale exploitation bucked this trend but that has ended too. You can fiddle about with using different financial or interest rates proxies for this if you want but going into joules per person after extraction is the heart of the matter.

If this decline did not exist, we would not be in the world we're in by a long shot. But if you look at the predictions they're all off. The media, academia, popular culture and business culture expected continuous growth to put fusion power plants on Mars. The UN, IEA, DoE, Long Now people expected moderate growth to sustainable replacement of gas turbines with optimistic greentech buildout figures that use more lithium and copper than can ever be mined. The economic counterculture like NakedCapitalism and The Oil Drum expected Mad Max.

Nobody predicted the existence of the voter base that brought us the last run of presidents, they predicted different voter bases. Some of the predictors even imagined that the importance of Pennsylvania Avenue would slowly vanish without anybody minding.

The price signals drove the move away, it's quite simple. Energy, labor, pollution tolerance, legal costs and economies of scale said to go elsewhere.

Some said that these price signals only make sense if globalisation lasts forever, but their remarks were dismissed as depressing.

The UK populace has immense opposition to Westminster's handling of the events because of a great lack of transparency.

If they were told the truth (that the country has to do what the White House says or else the new blackshirts do to Downing Street as they've recently rehearsed in Southampton, Belfast, Rotherham and Hull, plus the UK police and troop numbers are too small to affect the outcome) they could start to think more realistically about the situation.

Given the plurality of self-hosting options there is no reason to believe that it's not that case that every government on Earth is doing it to some extent.

Perhaps the real problem is too much acceptance of shoddy verification.