Humans are currently too inexpensive to make a harvesting robot worth the cost (sadly enough).

Let's say you spend $10M on R&D (a very low number in my opinion), each robot costs $50k to build, and maintenance/repairs cost $5k/year. You decide to charge your first customer $100k because you have to cover some of your R&D, and you pass all the maintenance costs on to them.

For that $105k per year, a farmer could hire ~8 people for an entire year. But most growers only need labor for a few months at the most. So, assuming a crop that requires people for about 3 months, you're actually looking at 32 humans vs. a single robot.

If the economics made sense, people would use harvesting robots. But at this point, picking fruit is something humans are particularly good at and computers are particularly bad at, and humans are still very inexpensive.

Your accounting ignores the uncertainty inherent in immigrant labor -- i.e. all the indirect costs associated with severe labor shortages when the political winds shift. The story in Georgia a few years back is telling [1]. For example, if immigration is curtailed, labor shortages will cause issues. If immigration is permitted, then healthcare costs could skyrocket. Robots are (at least) predictable -- and that can be a huge win in a lot of cases.

[1] http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/05/17/the-law-of-u...

On the other hand, in this reality: http://www.machines-simon.com/en/our-machines/vegetable-harv... http://www.tumoba.nl/en/products.php/vegetable-harvesters/le... http://automatedag.com/ http://www.oxbocorp.com/Products/ProcessedVegetables.aspx

More variables: picking only ripe fruit; handling the fruit more carefully; picking more rapidly so you can share the robot with many growers; refrigerating the fruit from the moment of picking. Any of these could make it worthwhile?

This is more an argument for an augmented human system than it is a slam dunk for something completely autonomous.

For example an unmanned, refrigerated, follow-me cart with a soft hopper could be a multiplier on picking productivity without all the hassles of actual mobile manipulation and perception.

Humans have evolved to be good at identifying and handling ripe fruit. I think a machine could be better, but it'd take a ton of R&D.

If a machine picks fruit 2x faster (which is unlikely, check out a YouTube video of people picking), then you still only need 2 people to beat it in efficiency.

Good points. I guess your argument might vary by crop though. So I'm curious if there are crops that are closer to that economic threshold. Mangos?

I've heard of crops where a machine shakes the tree, and the crop falls to the ground (maybe some kind of nut?). Then another machine vacuums them up and separates them from other debris.

I realize that planting isn't the same thing as harvesting, but I once had an acquaintance who was a salesperson for an Australian startup that made automated planting machines. Imagine a robot about the size of a small refrigerator that creeps along the field on bulldozer treads, digging holes and dispensing seeds as it goes.

To try and sell these things, my acquaintance would go out in the field and work alongside the farmers for weeks at a time to try and demonstrate the robot's value. Invariably something would break, and the engineers back at the main office would quickly turn around a design fix.

Although the farmers were usually patient and supportive, rarely did they end up buying. The company went out of business several years ago. I don't mention this anecdote to discourage you from your idea; just to suggest that the problem may end up being a lot more difficult than it may seem.

Often, having a superior product/method isn't enough. You also have to create a cultural change in the target market. If they don't wake up every morning thinking, "I wish someone would offer me [insert product/service here]", then it's very hard to sell it to them.

The Blue River (robotic harvesting startup) "lean startup" story is super (super!) illustrative: https://medium.com/startup-down/how-blue-river-used-the-lean...

Yes, you should talk to as many farmers (and labor companies) as possible.

The strawberry commission is also funding a start-up that is specifically focused on strawberry harvesting. However, the industry has done a lot with partial automation.

They have these multi-row picking support tractors that mean that the pickers don't have to spend much time walking with boxes (or running!! they are paid by weight or box) and can spend time doing the thing that is hard to automate.