Re:Rationing, errors and mammogram math
by ltjohnson on Sunday December 13, 2009 @08:22PM
(#993379)
I'll start by saying that I'm not trolling.
Using conditional probability, or bayes theorem to calculate a conditional probabilitiy, does not make something bayesian analysis.
I haven't read the original report (it's on my list) but what is presented in this article isn't really anything except probability. It would be bayesian if they put a distribution on the proportion of people that have a "certain cancer."
Re:Rationing, errors and mammogram math
by roundsquare on Monday December 14, 2009 @10:26AM
(#994275)
John Allen Paulos seems to be very intent on increasing the numeric literacy (I think he calls it numeracy) of people in general. Its a laudable goal indeed.
This is the kind of example that we can give to grade school kids and have them work it out. It would be a great "ah ha!" moment for some of them.
Using conditional probability, or bayes theorem to calculate a conditional probabilitiy, does not make something bayesian analysis.
I haven't read the original report (it's on my list) but what is presented in this article isn't really anything except probability. It would be bayesian if they put a distribution on the proportion of people that have a "certain cancer."
He uses the mammogram statistics as an example to explain Bayes' Theorem.
This is the kind of example that we can give to grade school kids and have them work it out. It would be a great "ah ha!" moment for some of them.