Re:Bayes’ Theorem – What is it and what is it good for?
by dimino on Thursday June 25, 2015 @10:11PM
(#9782123)
Judging from the content of lesswrong, I actually think literal math is what many people do recommend, and that's what bothers me.
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Re:Bayes’ Theorem – What is it and what is it good for?
by TeMPOraL on Friday June 26, 2015 @05:41AM
(#9783195)
In some cases you might want to actually do that math, even if you have to guesstimate numbers, since it still will beat your intuition.
http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/05/02/if-its-worth-doing-its-...
But in general, no one has enough computing power in their heads to go and do explicit bayesian updates on everything all day long. You have to pick your battles, and use the right tools for the task at hand.
Re:Bayes’ Theorem – What is it and what is it good for?
by davidgerard on Friday June 26, 2015 @07:46AM
(#9783650)
That post is like nobody there has ever heard the phrase "don't fall in love with your model".
Quite a lot of LessWrong posts are of the theme "my model gives this counterintuitive result" - the trouble is they go on to "AND THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT AND SIGNIFICANT!!" rather than "hmm, maybe my model needs work."