Consumers may not have gotten the message yet, but anyone running the numbers is going LED or nothing at all (small exceptions for grow operations or theater lightening).

So new installations get LED, but old ones are not retrofitted.

Comparing to incandescent is quite disingenuous. The bulbs just cost too much today, and the heat problems (i.e. much lower lifetime) are not fully solved, they work in some fixtures and not in others.

The LED has no advantages over the CFL, just extra cost, with no benefit.

The mercury vapor in CFLs is not very dangerous, it's elemental mercury which is not especially toxic, you need continuous exposure over a long time for it to cause any problems. One CFL is not going to do anything bad. How many CFLs do you break anyway? I've never broken a hot one, only a cold one that fell of the shelf, and cold ones don't release any mercury at all.

Buying an LED is an easier sell these days since the price has gone down, and the brightness has gone up, but I hope you did not avoid CFLs before now - that would have been very shortsighted.

Any potential cost savings just became really hard to recoup. I'm what, 6-10 years out now to save a $30 or so?

Cheap incadecent gives great quality light. Expensive LEDs give good quality light. Cheap LEDs ruin sleep patterns. Race to the bottom (and a lack of consumer awareness or ability tonbuy high quality bulbs) means LEDs are going to end up causing quite a negative impact for a non-trivial number of people.

FWIW my HOA put in shiet blueish LEDs everywhere outside. The entire complex now looks like a zombified wasteland. Evidence that I need to attend more meetings.