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Re:3x Improvement: Great sign-up page split-test for a web-app by brown9-2 on Monday November 30, 2009 @03:04PM (#968551)
Google Website Optimizer will give you a plus minus rate for your estimated conversion rate, which helps you to at least estimate what the significance/confidence is.

For example, one of the pages in one of my current tests shows up as "Est. Conversion Rate: 17.0% +/- 1.4%".

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