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How to Know If a Startup Is Promising?

Like when there's a friend of your working on his startup idea and asking you to join as a cofounder. At this stage there's nothing to gauge (not even a company yet).
( 1 comment | on HN )
Re:How to Know If a Startup Is Promising? by kelukelugames on Monday March 23, 2015 @04:48PM (#9253270)
You can't. Otherwise all of us would be billionaires.

There is a ton of risk not matter. We hear from a lot of people who "always knew they had it." But there are a ton of failures who also believed "they always had it" before failing.