How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malaysia Airlines plane is?

Re:How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malays... by TheSpiceIsLife on Tuesday February 24, 2015 @01:01AM (#9099017)

The theory goes: the simpler answer is more likely to be true because it is impossible for a series of events to be more likely.

The probability of A + B cannot be higher than A or B alone.

Of course that doesn't mean that A + B didn't occur, just that it is less likely.

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Re:How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malays... by ekianjo on Tuesday February 24, 2015 @02:17AM (#9099233)

> The theory goes: the simpler answer is more likely to be true because it is impossible for a series of events to be more likely.

If that were true then we would never have been able to do chemistry in the first place and get anything done by synthesis. The same applies to manufacturing. It's by careful planning and science that you overcome the probabilities and make it possible to conduct a series of events with perfection.

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Re:How crazy am I to think I actually know where that Malays... by TheSpiceIsLife on Tuesday February 24, 2015 @06:25AM (#9099934)

A more charitable interpretation of what I wrote would take it in the context we're discussing here.

A + B become increasingly more likely if you contrive circumstances for them to occur together. But even then the overall probability is increasingly small if you consider the number of events that have to have occurred over the previous 13 or billin years.

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