Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem

Re:Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem by beachstartup on Thursday February 19, 2015 @11:02PM (#9078843)

because the door you "selected" was never selected - it was never opened, nor the contents changed. it was the representation of a concept of a door, but it could have just as easily been the other door. in fact, in statistics land, that's exactly what it was. "one of the doors".

when you "switch", you're also switching the representation of a door from 1/3 to 1/2. and the odds are better when there are only 2 doors remaining.

remember, you don't always win by switching - it's not magic. over time, it just wins more often than not.

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Re:Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem by pliftkl on Thursday February 19, 2015 @11:05PM (#9078849)

Think about it this way. What if there were a million doors, and you pick one. The host then opens 999,998 other doors, showing you nothing behind them. Stick with your choice, or pick the other door? Of course you pick the other door - you had only a one in a million shot at picking the right door.

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Re:Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem by beachstartup on Friday February 20, 2015 @03:02PM (#9082596)

this makes a lot of sense, i.e. "the chances of you picking the right door out of a million on the first try are basically zero. do you want to try the other door now?"

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