Re:Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem
by function_seven on Thursday February 19, 2015 @10:57PM
(#9078826)
I'll give it a shot.
When you choose door 1, you have a 2/3 chance of goat. That means that 2/3 of the time, Monty doesn't get to choose a door (You're on one goat, he can only reveal the other goat). So he only has one choice, the other goat. Since 2/3 of the time he's forced to avoid the car, that means that 2/3 of the time you will switch to the car.
When you choose door 1, you have a 2/3 chance of goat. That means that 2/3 of the time, Monty doesn't get to choose a door (You're on one goat, he can only reveal the other goat). So he only has one choice, the other goat. Since 2/3 of the time he's forced to avoid the car, that means that 2/3 of the time you will switch to the car.