Agreed, this seems insanely high. Factor of ten at least. I don't work at those three companies mentioned: maybe I just don't know the sector (and maybe I should move to CA). I'm And at the very least, there's stipulations tied to vesting and grants that aren't considered here. Or a portion of bonus is in the form of equity, which isn't accounted for, either.

Risk-adjusted returns for startup equity aren't even close to accurate ("let's assume that you're one of the lucky few" isn't a good estimation strategy).