Re:Trading a Real Market: What the Swiss National Bank Taugh...
by JacobAldridge on Saturday January 17, 2015 @08:09PM
(#8906204)
By definition, a specific Black Swan is unpredictable, but in general the likelihood of any Black Swan event is higher than the markets factor in.
You'll never pick the day it happens. But if you invest everyday, eventually you'll be right (according to the theory). Take a trade that will almost certainly lose you 1% per annum BUT, in a Black Swan event will return you 1000%. Every year you 'bleed', and it takes guts to keep investing. Then one day something hits the fan, and you were the only one exposed to the upside.
You'll never pick the day it happens. But if you invest everyday, eventually you'll be right (according to the theory). Take a trade that will almost certainly lose you 1% per annum BUT, in a Black Swan event will return you 1000%. Every year you 'bleed', and it takes guts to keep investing. Then one day something hits the fan, and you were the only one exposed to the upside.