Re:The Statistical Crisis in Science
by dschiptsov on Friday January 16, 2015 @01:41PM
(#8900730)
How do you model events such as yesterday's EUR/CHF?
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Re:The Statistical Crisis in Science
by hessenwolf on Monday January 19, 2015 @08:49AM
(#8911883)
I think the Swiss Bank intervention is the classic black swan story. The model really only works until somebody puts their foot in it.
Risk management looks at the usual processes via stochastic modelling, but you need to also make scenario analysis, where you just make a deterministic event happen and then measure the effect on the value of your portfolio.
Re:The Statistical Crisis in Science
by mynegation on Friday January 16, 2015 @03:16PM
(#8901394)
Stochastic volatility and jump diffusion models