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A comment on Japan records lowest number of births on record as population shrinks. Parent comment

Re:Japan records lowest number of births on record as popula... by alkonaut on Thursday January 01, 2015 @03:19PM (#8824123)
In much of the developed world the fertility (children per woman) is barely the (slightly over) 2.0 required to sustain the population. Countries where, say, 1.0 children are born per woman is having a rapidly shrinking population, but more seriously a rapidly aging population where a smaller number of working people supports a larger and larger number of elderly.

If a country wanted to have a shrinking population, it would likely want a fertility rate of just below 2. Japan has 1.41 (!) and barely any immigration.

The solution to global population issues is making sure that poor countries with high fertility rate (4-7) are brought down to 2-2.5, something which is already happening very quickly. See e.g. Hans Rosling's famous talks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeXJnOE-1gw

The solution to the low fertility rate is likely hard to change short term (cultural), but comparing countries in europe for example, it seems likely that making children reforms such as subsidized day-care, free higher education etc. would help.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Japan records lowest number of births on record as popula... by archagon on Thursday January 01, 2015 @03:32PM (#8824181)
Regardless, current estimates that I've seen point to the population of the Earth stabilizing at around 10 billion. People always say that we can't move from industrial to more sustainable types of farming because our current population levels couldn't be sustained. Where is that cut-off point? 1 billion? Less? I think that point is what all "enlightened" nations should be aiming for in terms of policy — the point where we could all survive comfortably without having to depend on oil-based products just to feed us. (Otherwise, it'll eventually have to happen naturally, and it won't be pretty.)
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Japan records lowest number of births on record as popula... by alkonaut on Thursday January 01, 2015 @03:48PM (#8824249)
There isn't a clear distinction between "needs oil" and "sustainable". It's quite likely that there are ways (or ways to be found) to farm very efficiently without ruining the planet. Btw I think the latest prognosis was bumped to 11bn.
[ Parent | on HN ]