> For small tools and utilities, the JVM requirement is quite onerous, especially when one does not know if the end user has Java installed, or if they do, what version.

There some efforts in this direction with the OpenJDK.

As of Java 8 there is an application packager that brings everything together.

https://docs.oracle.com/javase/8/docs/technotes/guides/deplo...

And the size of the native runtime has been reduced.

http://openjdk.java.net/jeps/148

> I'll just keep hoping a good and free (or inexpensive) Java AOT compiler becomes available some day. I would even donate money and/or code if a serious project started.

If you are on GNU/Linux, Mac OS/X check RoboVM.

http://www.robovm.com/