Even if it was a logical theory that had coherence not sure how it fits here.
We know countries unify. We know what happens. You can be sure North and South will one day unify.
Yes the only question is when. Prepare to early = big loss. Prepare to late = a loss.
It's just about creating a sensible plan on how to deal with something we don't have a timeline on.
When will a building have a fire? Who knows, just make a sensible plan for pre and post when it happens. You don't need to call it a black swan. It's just risk management.
How can we be sure? We know countries unify and we also know that countries split never to be unified again.
Short summary for non-uruguayans: Uruguay started out as the Spanish piece of the land on the eastern side of the river Uruguay according to the treaty of Tordesillas, and became a disupted frontier between Spain and Portugal.
During the May 1810 revolution (Argentinean revolutionaries against Spain), while the capital city was a Spanish stronghold the local leader José Artigas sided with the Argentinean insurgents and founded the United Provinces.
Artigas wanted a federal system, but the Buenos Aires leaders wanted centralism. So Uruguay actually became a province of the Federal League.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liga_Federal
When Uruguay announced its independence from Spain, it became annexed to Argentina.
Then Brasil invaded, and it became a Brazilian province for a short time, thus the parent comment.
Citation?
He describes it as a black swan event that would not come on any predictable timetable, but something that would be far better managed if some preparations were made in advance.
Maybe that idea is catching on.