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Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by tokenadult on Wednesday October 08, 2014 @08:43PM (#8430225)
I remember reading the book You Will Go to the Moon in childhood, just as Virginia Postrel, the author of the essay here, did. She is right that most people in our era were not as excited about the space program as she and I were: "The reason mid-20th-century Americans were optimistic about the future wasn’t that science-fiction writers told cool stories about space travel. Science-fiction glamour in fact worked on only a small slice of the public. (Nobody else in my kindergarten was grabbing for You Will Go to the Moon.) People believed the future would be better than the present because they believed the present was better than the past. They constantly heard stories -- not speculative, futuristic stories but news stories, fashion stories, real-estate stories, medical stories -- that reinforced this belief. They remembered epidemics and rejoiced in vaccines and wonder drugs. They looked back on crowded urban walk-ups and appreciated neat suburban homes. They recalled ironing on sweaty summer days and celebrated air conditioning and wash-and-wear fabrics. They marveled at tiny transistor radios and dreamed of going on airplane trips."

The older I get, the more I like incremental progress that leads to inventions (like this Internet doohickey that lets you and me have an interesting conversation across barriers of time and place) that hardly anyone thought of in the 1960s, and which have developed from a mixture of government research projects and private investment. I don't really care if not a lot of big-deal things happen in the next thirty years, as long as plenty of little-deal things happen like a continuation of the ongoing increases in healthy life expectancy at all ages.[1]

"Optimistic science fiction does not create a belief in technological progress. It reflects it. Stephenson and Thiel are making a big mistake when they propose a vision of the good future that dismisses the everyday pleasures of ordinary people -- that, in short, leaves out consumers. This perspective is particularly odd coming from a fiction writer and a businessman whose professional work demonstrates a keen sense of what people will buy. People are justifiably wary of grandiose plans that impose major costs on those who won’t directly reap their benefits."

Hear. Hear. Let's keep working away at making our own lives better, and our children's lives better, and as everyone does that, the whole world's lives will be better.

[1] http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v307/n3/box...

Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by lmg643 on Wednesday October 08, 2014 @11:10PM (#8430623)
My main concern with Peter Thiel praising monopolies is that the nuance of the message will get lost - "earning monopoly through radical innovation" - but the core message remains - monopoly = profit. People will start to pat themselves on the back for acquiring all their competitors, skewing regulations in their favor, and a variety of other sleazy business tactics. I suspect most large business CEOs already understand that monopoly = profits, so Thiel is just making it respectable to talk about by casting it in the light of innovation.
Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by thathonkey on Wednesday October 08, 2014 @11:29PM (#8430671)
So the argument is that monopolies are ok so long as they are won fair and square? Umm... ok.
Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by cpeterso on Thursday October 09, 2014 @02:20AM (#8431069)
AFAIU, Thiel doesn't say monopolies are good. He says the pursuit of monopolies drives progress:

“Monopolies drive progress. The promise of years or even decades of monopoly profits provides a powerful incentive to innovate.” http://www.technologyreview.com/review/531491/the-contrarian...

Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by ThomPete on Thursday October 09, 2014 @08:30AM (#8431940)
That is putting the wagon in front of the horse IMHO. A monopoly doesn't drive progress imho it takes advantage of an opportunity no one else did compared to where the world is at any given time.
Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by seanflyon on Thursday October 09, 2014 @05:42PM (#8435161)
> takes advantage of an opportunity no one else did

Sounds like a reasonable definition of progress.

Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by ThomPete on Friday October 10, 2014 @08:38AM (#8437374)
That doesn't mean that the monopoly drives it and there are plenty of examples of monopolies hindering it.
Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by sitkack on Thursday October 09, 2014 @02:32PM (#8434244)
BTW: sorry for unfortunate typos on my end, my comment was not directed at you.
Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by sitkack on Thursday October 09, 2014 @03:51AM (#8431248)
This idea is frankly retarded. I am not saying you have had it. This is directed at You. To say that monopolies drive progress strikes me as an anthropomorphisation of the motivations of innovators. Did AT&T Microsoft and Ford drive progress? Hardly. They existed when progress occurred but to attribute it do them is generous. Most progress is driven by the artists and scientists on the edge, they rarely see the fruits of their labor, the riches are picked up by the second and third waves of adopters.

Maybe monopolies refine innovations?

Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by byEngineer on Thursday October 09, 2014 @05:37AM (#8431461)
Funny you say this. I hate monopolies as the next guy. Reading Thiel's book right now. What he says is that monopolies can have luxury of innovation while in the perfect market conditions it is all about as low margin as possible without cash flying around to spend on extravaganza like innovation.

AT&T: telecommunications company that employed Dennis Ritchie and Brian Kerninghan to figure out software to play chess. Dudes created C language and UNIX OS in the process.

Which low margin cash-strived company will do extravagant stuff like that for kicks?

Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by mrow84 on Thursday October 09, 2014 @07:40AM (#8431766)
Can you see any good argument against such monopolies being forced to be non-profit making entities?

The only argument that comes to mind is that it would create a disincentive against the drive towards monopoly that Theil apparently claims is beneficial. However, that seems to be something like the kind of the world we are in now.

I'm not sure there are any clear solutions to this problem - balancing incentive and the avoidance of corruption is just hard.

Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by icebraining on Thursday October 09, 2014 @07:17AM (#8431669)
AT&T: telecommunications company that employed Dennis Ritchie and Brian Kerninghan to figure out software to play chess. Dudes created C language and UNIX OS in the process.

Much more than that, actually. From Wikipedia:

Researchers working at Bell Labs are credited with the development of radio astronomy, the transistor, the laser, the charge-coupled device (CCD), information theory, the UNIX operating system, the C programming language, S programming language and the C++ programming language. Eight Nobel Prizes have been awarded for work completed at Bell Laboratories.

Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by sitkack on Thursday October 09, 2014 @02:31PM (#8434238)
Because this existed at a monopoly doesn't mean monopolies are good. Arguing from the standpoint of perfect markets makes no sense, only in a theoretical self consistent system, but it will have little bearing on reality.

An analogous argument can be made that war is good because DARPA funds research. We don't need war to have government sponsored research.

Because these occurred in one location under the umbrella of single entity doesn't make them better than if they were singular accomplishments by hundreds of organizations.

Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by forthefuture on Thursday October 09, 2014 @12:06AM (#8430762)
The irony is that any company that is legitimately better than their competitors has no choice but to become a monopoly.
Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by 001sky on Thursday October 09, 2014 @01:09AM (#8430917)
Yes, it's a classic false dichotomy. The options are not (monopoly, competition). A "the neverending competition that cannot be won" is best avoided--there is nothing redeemable about this "pure antithesis" to monoploy to make it more desirable.
Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by couchand on Thursday October 09, 2014 @02:04AM (#8431024)
...though if the labor market is at all free that should self-correct pretty quickly. Unfortunately we tend to tie things like retirement and health care directly to employment, totally distorting that market.
Re:Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future by wlievens on Thursday October 09, 2014 @07:15AM (#8431657)
You (Americans) do... we (Europeans) don't, generally.