Re:CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US
by rimantas on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @04:08AM
(#8393301)
Define "epic proportions", because it seems that your threshold for "epic" is way too low.
10x more people are killed on US roads each year.
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Re:CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US
by lutusp on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @04:58AM
(#8393425)
The original claim would be hyperbolic, except that someone killed in a car crash doesn't increase the risk to other people on the road, but an Ebola infection certainly does. In the mathematics of exponential increase, a small initial amplification factor can produce very impressive results in a short time. Consider the hypothesis that just 1% of Ebola sufferers infect other people. Using this well-established mathematical method:
y' = y (1+p/100)^t
y = infected population % at time zero.
y' = infected population % at time t.
t = time in consistent units
p = percentage increase for one unit of time
So, if it takes a week for the infected population to increase by 1%, then:
http://i.imgur.com/TDPd7ug.png
IOW if after a week the infected population has increased by 1%, after a year (52 weeks) the infected population has increased by 67%. After 2 years (104 weeks) the infected population has increased to 281% of the original. And so forth.
This isn't true for car crashes, and the above is what is meant by an "exponential increase".
Re:CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in US
by crpatino on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @10:22AM
(#8394503)
If the ghosts of people who died in the road began to spook drivers and cause more accidents, you would see a rapid spike of mortality in the short term, followed maybe by change of behavior where ~90% of traffic is composed of professional bus/truck drivers that are hardened and not easily affected by ghosts.