>hot war [...] think it's a virtual certainty now, and only a question of scale.

I'm not so sure. I don't see a proper hot war happening between the major countries. Three reasons: 1) Everyone is too busy buying Ikea furniture and iPhones. 2) A proper hot war will end in MAD imo 3) The overall mentality has shifted among the 1st world population. Sure everyone is still patriotic but if you tell a German to go kill a Brit/Russian/American they'll think you're mad.

1) In 1939 Polish were also too busy just living. 2) That's the point. 3) If a German/Brit/American see Russian tanks in their towns killing their people, they will go and shoot in response. "Overall mentality" means very little in existential circumstances.

They will don't want to attack other country, sure. But Russian forces are doing just that right now, and you know, under proper propaganda, most Russians support Putin (86% as of the most recent surveys), and think war in Ukraine is organized by Americans.

So regular Russian troops think they're going there to _defend_ Ukrainians from Americans, same as they did in 1968 in Czechoslovakia.

Actually, regular troops appeared there only recently, conflict was started earlier by local pro-Russian people, heavily supported by Russia by means of contract warriors from Chechnya, arms, including heavy: tanks, anti-aircraft systems that brought down MH17, and most importantly -- military instructors (their leader was Russian from KGB/FSB).

So mentality is not a stopping factor there. Before WW2 people mostly thought it's impossible to repeat cruelties of WW1.

I'm Belarussian, so I know Russian mentality. It's not as smart and humane as you're assuming.

Russia is defending its self interest, much in the way any other country would and does where they can to the extent that they can. Russia's capital elite aren't dummies, they have avoided having their wrists tied by the West so far but that will change in time. Americas military budget dwarfs Russia's, it would take a relatively large collective group of the mentally ill to want a direct confrontation with the US. I'm Russian and we aren't as any more or less so, dumb or inhumane as any other people. Don't demonize entire group of people you happen to disagree with.

>I'm Belarussian, so I know Russian mentality. It's not as smart and humane as you're assuming.

I'm from a country with 6x the murder rate as yours (per person) so no my reasoning is not based on assuming people are "humane". Oh and my neighboring country is currently busy with a military coup (Lesotho - check google news - started ~12 hours ago).

My point is bad sht happens. People get shot & die. I can deal with that. A proper hot war is an entirely different beast altogether though & is something I hope to never see.

I can address your specific statements in more detail if you wish but it seems a little superfluous tbh.

thank you for that link.