there seems a fundamental incongruence between a market based decision mechanism and a singular fiat decision. prediction markets are valuable because of their ability to absorb complex and dynamic information. while they point to a consensus it is a fleeting one by definition.

for theoretical examples the 2 presented are especially awkward and seem fated to trip over themselves not because of the mystic beauty of self reference but rather because they are the wrong tools for the job.

perhaps to start thinking this way its better to remove legacy institutions and things like government bail outs and ceo pay as a priori conditions.