Re:Bitcoin: the Stripe perspective
by bottled_poe on Tuesday July 22, 2014 @12:03AM
(#8067338)
If I understand you correctly, your estimate is way off. Have a look at the bitstamp exchange rate for the last 8 months. Looks like around 40% of days closed at a price above the current price.
Re:Bitcoin: the Stripe perspective
by sassypants on Tuesday July 22, 2014 @03:21AM
(#8067705)
In my example I was using a 1 year horizon. So none of those closing prices would be charted until they had a year to mature.
I think I would need to make a slider so that you could explore the concept at various time horizons -- 8 months might bring a 50% occurrence of profit.
But my expectation is that at 1 year 95% of investments are sound, while at 2 years it would be 100%.
My ballpark guess would be that the longest you might have held Bitcoin at a loss were if you purchased during a few day span during the peak of 2011. You would have had to have held for almost two years to have turned a profit. But on 95-99% of days in which you could have purchased bitcoin, you would have profited within 1 year.
I'll try and put that together. Should be interesting.