They're hypothetical inferences, but the downside to using actual realistic examples is that even when they're meticulously researched, people nitpick them to a degree that baffles me. Like, asserting "but the probability of the evidence is either 0 or 1, so it's clearly impossible to ever make any inferential reasoning work".
The examples here are well chosen to eliminate the usual attacks on inference. They're ODD. But they're not invalid.
Dude, you cheated.
Not only cheated, but also destroyed an opportunity to learn something valuable.
GP can, however, take other calibration tests elsewhere.
Here is one: http://calibratedprobabilityassessment.org/
Don't cheat this time. There is a valuable lesson here.
I wimped out, the list was too long and it is really hot. http://imgur.com/OB890bo at least my line is mostly straight, ;).
Lots of those questions were ambiguous within a couple hundred miles, at least in my mind.
while i honestly answered all of the questions in the story, i have to admit i did a view source on the codeword because i didn't have the patience to work out the problems in the google doc before seeing how the story ends (disappointingly, i might add).
But the only thing I learned is to look up answers to trivia questions on Google, and to drag chart bars to match the text above.
Overconfidence isn't the problem people have when obviously faced with questions they don't know the answer to (I've never milked a cow, and I don't intend to), and the inferences the protagonist was making from his trip were very suspicious and arbitrary, so that was disengaging in a tale about using proper logic.