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Re:Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots W... by tluyben2 on Friday June 13, 2014 @04:17PM (#7890634)
I think, just like always on HN, that people who write these kind of posts and respond to them (agreeing) are not often in contact with 'the common man'. Like the Turing test 'news'; a lot of of people I know would be mistaken for a computer and if I would make a computer which acts exactly like they do, people here would call it a failure and not intelligent. I am convinced the singularity will come and we are all replaceable in the end, however I think before this there will come a (possibly long) time when machines will replace 80%(+) of the working population. There will be no jobs to replace those jobs as the humans doing them simply cannot do things which are vastly different. In the past, for instance with horse carriage to cars, you could see that operation of a car is related to that of a carriage. There is no such move to be made with people who put glue on four corners of the iPhone glass plate (in exactly the same place every time or get fired) and who are replaced by a more accurate and faster robots. Moves like this can be made with general practitioners (most local MDs are already replaced by machines; the only thing they do is search for your issues and prescribe what comes out or refer you to someone who might know) or the run of the mill lawyer or accountant who, in essence, bring nothing to the table already but the fact they have a piece of paper. A lot of people here can do a better job than these (especially MDs and accountants) with Google and their common sense and education. (Edit: I mean by this; these jobs need to be and will be disrupted but only the law/system is preventing that at the moment. There was talk of Watson somewhere with one nurse replacing (many) GPs at a time, but I bet that didn't happen yet because GPs like the status quo.)

I'm not bleak about the future as I do also think we'll need (and force) a more EU distribution of the wealth in the end, but there will be a quite hard period when that's not in place and 1 billion Chinese are out of a job...

Re:Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots W... by a8da6b0c91d on Friday June 13, 2014 @04:48PM (#7890757)
Yeah, the impending problem is that sub 90 IQ people are rendered totally useless. That quarter of the population is already much less employable than it was just a generation ago. The social consequences of this process are already evident.

These elite IQ guys like Andreesen in coastal bubbles are totally out of touch with broader society. They really don't grasp that a huge fraction of the population is not going to be training up for the services and digital economy, because that's not realistically possible.

Re:Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots W... by mynameishere on Friday June 13, 2014 @06:06PM (#7891079)
A 90 IQ is probably a decent rough measure at this point, because that's about what it takes to handle a cash register or a grill. And when the those jobs are gone, it will inch up, 91, 92, etc. But forget it. Look at the future this guy has concocted in his head:

The main fields of human endeavor will be culture, arts, sciences, creativity, philosophy, experimentation, exploration, and adventure.

...it's like he's never met anyone who didn't attend a top tier university. Here's reality:

The main fields of human endeavor will be copulating, hustling, consuming low-brow entertainment, eating, and the occasional lunatic running amok.

...and honestly, we're square on that path right now. There are huge numbers of people who are literally useless eaters. Go to a Wal-mart supercenter sometime. Huge big fat people buying candy, soda, potato chips, frozen meals--often paid by the public dole. I'm not even complaining. Unless you start a sterilization program (and we aren't) it's the unavoidable present and future.

Re:Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots W... by Houshalter on Friday June 13, 2014 @08:32PM (#7891590)
Congratulations on finding ways to make yourself feel superior to the lower class. You are exactly the type of person humanity needs more of.
Re:Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots W... by mercer on Saturday June 14, 2014 @03:02PM (#7893380)
While I don't share the pessimism or sense of superiority one might read into OP's post, I think their point remains (somewhat) valid.

There are many people who 'endeavor' exactly the way he describes, many more than I always wanted to believe. And many of them are quite intelligent, so it's not just about IQ.

While changing our approaches to education and the right motivation, in my opinion, can bring people much further than some of us are inclined to believe, this is a limited solution for all the grownups who live in the way OP describes.

Re:Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots W... by mahdib on Saturday June 21, 2014 @02:24PM (#7925653)
he is just looking outside the window and not sugarcoating. He sees a loser and says that's a loser.
Re:Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots W... by a8da6b0c91d on Friday June 13, 2014 @07:24PM (#7891353)
The main policy point made in The Bell Curve by Murray and Herrnstein was about how important it is to provide people with a valued place in society. Without purposeful work and meaningful social integration you inevitably get the sort of degeneracy we see spreading. About six pages of The Bell Curve touched on race, so of course that and the ensuing screeching is all anybody remembers. The real social commentary in that book is turning out to be very prescient.
Re:Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots W... by webmaven on Friday June 13, 2014 @05:07PM (#7890840)
Straight-up IQ isn't everything. As a society we'll learn to better value (and make use of) other qualities, other intelligences: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_multiple_intelligence...
Re:Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots W... by josephschmoe on Friday June 13, 2014 @05:45PM (#7891006)
The point still remains though. There will be and are individuals who are unable to find work in their area. And not everyone is intelligent enough to run their own company and make it profitable.

Granted, you could remove that profitability floor with universal basic income.

Re:Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots W... by z0r on Friday June 13, 2014 @05:45PM (#7891002)
I don't think IQ has anything to do with the simple problem that people train for and gain experience in specialized professions (a cost of years, maybe a lifetime), but can find themselves poorly paid or out of work when the supply and demand situation turns sour for them. You don't have to be stupid to find yourself unneeded and unable to realistically respond to market signals.