Re:Interpreting Noise
by thaumasiotes on Saturday April 19, 2014 @09:33PM
(#7615428)
If you're a homeowner with a small garden, losing the plants to frost isn't a major concern.
If you're a farmer with a crop that may need to be harvested, smudged, or sprayed with water, losing everything to frost is the kind of thing that might drive you to bankruptcy. Say there are 30 days over the course of winter where the overnight low temperature is forecast near but above zero. By your assumption, the forecast is using 95% confidence intervals. What are the odds of your crops dying if you rely on the weather forecast?
If you're a homeowner and you've got a small garden or some potted plants, covering them in straw or bringing them indoors isn't a major concern.
If you're a farmer with a crop that may need to be harvested, smudged, or sprayed with water (ice coating protects some crops), with a nontrivial investment of time and materials, the distinction is meaningful.