The SaaS/PaaS business will also be huge, but I think Google has a long climb uphill competing with Amazon, IBM, etc.
And, if Google makes a real AI then the value of the company goes through the roof.
You're completely forgetting Chrome, Android, Google Play store for Apps, Google Play store for Video, Google Maps, StreetView, Google Docs, Google Spreadsheet, Google Slides, Picasa / Photos on Google+, Google+, Fiber, Blogger, Google Now, YouTube, and freaking GMail.
And yes, every single one of those things really effects how, when, and what I can search, and what the results look like.
Google’s mission is to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful.
To fixate specifically on one part of your post, "we're still looking at blue links on a white background with pagination."
That's just utter crap. If I Google, "When is my next Flight," I'm presented with a beautiful tile that shows me my flight info.
If I Google my street address I'm given a map, and Street View.
I think you have selective amnesia of what life was like in 2004. I mean, Google Maps was announced on Feb 8, 2005.
"Imagine a Tesla that was powered by a Google self-driving system."
That will NEVER happen. Ever.
Other car companies -- Mercedes, Audi -- are already ahead of Google on what matters; external packaging, car integration, and vehicle dynamics.
Just because Google can strap a 3-foot-tall spinning LIDAR to the top of an Lexus RX doesn't mean they have any sort of product ready to be put into any production car.
It's a science fair experiment.
That includes Glass, Self-Driving Cars, Drones, and all the other superfluous stuff they're throwing money at.
My suggestion -- focus -- on search. Redefine how we find information again; we're still looking at blue links on a white background with pagination.
In that regard, Google's been stagnant for over 10 years.