Re:Google Revenue Jumps, But Misses Forecasts
by guyzero on Thursday April 17, 2014 @02:35PM
(#7605417)
Well at some point they're limited to the rate of organic growth of the internet. If Google gets $X per internet user then they're going to only grow as fast as the internet grows.
Re:Google Revenue Jumps, But Misses Forecasts
by ChuckMcM on Thursday April 17, 2014 @06:21PM
(#7606856)
I believe they hit that limit several years ago, hence the 100% annual growth rate in what they are paying to buy distribution traffic. My thesis is that they are now in the $X per organic user + $Y = ($Q - $D), where $Y is the amount of money a nominal 'purchased' user brings in ($Q) minus the cost of getting them ($D).
If they follow their trends they should pay about 917 to 988M$ for distribution traffic. They will need to get at least a 25% increase in paid clicks over Q2 of last year which would be something like an increase in 5 - 6% in paid clicks over this just finished quarter. If they can't do that then they are going to miss their targets again next quarter. My guess (well what I would do if I were in their shoes) is that they would take it out of the members cut, basically reduce the payout to AdSense for Content and other member sites. Either way, interesting times ahead.