Re:Why Bitcoin Matters for Africa
by sanswork on Sunday February 23, 2014 @10:56PM
(#7289009)
If you look at the charts volatility has actually gone up quite a bit during the past year, then levelled out a bit then spiked this past month or so but it's not really started dropping at all.
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Look harder. Over the last 4-5 years volatility has gone down. And episodes of volatility spiking up are rarer.
A linear regression on the volatility line is clearly going down:
http://btcmag.9wizards.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/201...
What method of tracking volatility are you looking at because all the ones I've tried on http://bitcoincharts.com/ at the all data length show an increase in volatility.
(Tried Chaikin Volatility, Donchian Channel, ATR, and Bollinger Band)
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgTzm1g10zm2g25z...
Chaikin Volatility goes down imho. I do not really know what the others mean. Are they adjusted for volume?
I don't think it actually goes down. Look at Jan 12 to Jan 13. Then look at Jan 13 to Jan 14. There is definitely a lot more volatility during the second period.
The others largely measure average price spread using slightly different means from each other.