This illustrates the challenges of pattern matching in a hits-driven black-swan-finding industry.

Investors are looking for the next Facebook, so it only makes sense to invest in people who seem very Zucklike, which the WhatsApp founders are not (at least superficially). It reminds me of how generals are always preparing to fight the last war rather than the next war. Or how political pundits are convinced the US will never have a black president, let alone a Democrat from the North, until suddenly we do.

I guess predicting the future remains a hard thing to do. :)