Re:Defunct Soviet reconnaissance satellite may hit Earth today
by dTal on Sunday February 16, 2014 @10:15AM
(#7247814)
The site now has an infobox stating "It has been reported that COSMOS 1220 has reentered the atmospehere [sic]".
No other reports that I can find, but this site[1] seems to have a lot of good info. Oddly, I get a completely different orbital inclination when I click on "To see where this object is expected to fall click here." (and, rather alarmingly, an impact site next to me) The main page and NORAD both agree however that it's currently still in orbit and currently somewhere around Cape Horn.
It's hard to tell whether a particular map is using live data or extrapolating a stable trajectory. At this point I imagine there'd be a large discrepancy.
Re:Defunct Soviet reconnaissance satellite may hit Earth today
by ColinWright on Sunday February 16, 2014 @10:41AM
(#7247910)
Yes - same satellite number, your link includes the word "satellite," and it appears that the site defaults to the space station if you do something wrong, with no indication.
Very helpful.
The site also thinks it's now decayed or re-entered and no longer actually plots the track. Which is a shame.
Re:Defunct Soviet reconnaissance satellite may hit Earth today
by ChuckMcM on Sunday February 16, 2014 @08:25PM
(#7250150)
In a general sense, no. However once its orbit decays to the point where friction with the upper atmosphere can impart a couple of kilonewtons of delta-v you can then create a probability ellipse and lay that on the globe. One of the interesting confounding factors is how much "side" force (perpindicular to the orbit) is created by the various parts sticking out burning up. A satellite where its appendages burn off cleanly quickly becomes ballistic and its impact point is fairly tightly constrained, one which still has onboard propellant will sometimes get a kick in some random direction by that tank exploding, and satellites which, in their deployment configuration, are prone to spinning, can be spun by atmospheric re-entry to the point where they are ripped apart by the centripetal forces generated. But even in that case, the things that are likely to make it all the way to the ground (like tungsten fuel tanks) are pretty small and constrained again by the ballistic footprint from where it started.
From a pure statistics point of view you can say "in the water" and be more likely correct than incorrect. If that helps.
No other reports that I can find, but this site[1] seems to have a lot of good info. Oddly, I get a completely different orbital inclination when I click on "To see where this object is expected to fall click here." (and, rather alarmingly, an impact site next to me) The main page and NORAD both agree however that it's currently still in orbit and currently somewhere around Cape Horn.
It's hard to tell whether a particular map is using live data or extrapolating a stable trajectory. At this point I imagine there'd be a large discrepancy.
[1]http://www.satview.org/decay.php
http://www.satview.org/spacejunk.php?sat_id=12054U
Very helpful.
The site also thinks it's now decayed or re-entered and no longer actually plots the track. Which is a shame.
From a pure statistics point of view you can say "in the water" and be more likely correct than incorrect. If that helps.