I am not sure if I intuitively know it or do we have to consciously compute / infer it? (the coin/card example).
I guess I have some aprox feeling, but it's highly susceptible to being skewed.
I guess I have some aprox feeling, but it's highly susceptible to being skewed.
We are great at probability, we compute it unconsciously. Every person knows the approximate probability of flipping a coin to show heads, pulling a card from a stack, or being rejected/successful when asking a date out (we always say our 'chances' are good/bad, depending on factors we think are important).
In our day to day lives, many decisions are driven by what we think the 'odds' are of our endeavor being successful.