The car has been on the market, what, 3-4 years? Just how fast do you think the batteries will expire?

Because Nissan was a little stupid and didn't include any sort of active cooling system for the battery. No heat pump, no liquid cooling, not even an air-cooled heat sink (unless you count the flat outer surface of the battery). There is a resistance heater, yes, and that helps in cold climates, but it does nothing beneficial in warm climates.

As a result, many (if not most) SoCal and Arizona owners have experienced quite significant battery degradation [0]. That translates into reduced range. Almost every other manufacturer includes some sort of battery thermal management system. That is why, for example, Tesla Roadster batteries average about 85% of initial capacity after 100,000 miles in real-world use[1].

[0] http://www.autoevolution.com/news/arizona-nissan-leaf-batter... [1] http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-roadster-battery-life-study-...

I think the official estimate is 8 years, give or take 3 depending on average temperatures.

> The battery pack is expected to retain 70% to 80% of its capacity after 10 years

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf#Battery

8 years happens to be the length of the warranty on 2011/2012 Leaf batteries. Either way, combined with the optional $100/mo protection plan that gives you a new battery if yours ever loses 30% capacity, I doubt any Leaf buyers will be on the market before 2021 for any reason other than wanting a new car.