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Re:Nissan Sells 100,000 LEAFs, Captures 48% Of Worldwide Ele... by prostoalex on Monday January 20, 2014 @12:55AM (#7087827)
I think the official estimate is 8 years, give or take 3 depending on average temperatures.
Re:Nissan Sells 100,000 LEAFs, Captures 48% Of Worldwide Ele... by dangrossman on Monday January 20, 2014 @12:58AM (#7087830)
> The battery pack is expected to retain 70% to 80% of its capacity after 10 years

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf#Battery

8 years happens to be the length of the warranty on 2011/2012 Leaf batteries. Either way, combined with the optional $100/mo protection plan that gives you a new battery if yours ever loses 30% capacity, I doubt any Leaf buyers will be on the market before 2021 for any reason other than wanting a new car.