"Adult diaper sales surpass baby diapers in Japan"

http://news.msn.com/rumors/rumor-adult-diaper-sales-surpass-...

I'm not sure what the claim is here.

Kids need diapers for a few years, which we can basically assume is constant. Meanwhile, lifespans keep increasing (especially in the past average-lifespan, say 80 years), and I assume adult diapers are used for significantly longer per person.

At even a 1:1 birth/death rate, given a long enough average lifespan, I would expect more adult diaper sales unless we find better / permanent fixes for whatever causes the need for adult diapers in the first place.

Not all older adults use diapers. In fact, a quite small fraction of them do.

Baby diapers oversell adult diapers in all but extremely freaky situations...

And they have sub-replacement fertility rates -- which means that there are more deaths than births in the long run.

I suspect toughing out their demographic problem will prove better in the long run than opening the can of worms that comes with immigration.

And maybe they can institute a program like Israel's to encourage Japanese nationals living overseas to return to Japan.

> I suspect toughing out their demographic problem will prove better in the long run than opening the can of worms that comes with immigration.

Have you looked at Japan's population profile? We're looking at 40 years of real hardship, starting right about now.

I quite agree that, in the long term, Japan should plan for a flat demographic curve, but the two baby booms of the 40s/50s and the 70s, followed by a plunging birth rate, mean the transition is going to be extremely painful.

> And maybe they can institute a program like Israel's to encourage Japanese nationals living overseas to return to Japan.

They did that in the 80s. The outcome did not reflect well on Japan.

In truth, Japan doesn't have an immigration policy. It has a managing foreigners policy, overseen the Ministry of Justice. Naturalization is permitted, but not encouraged. For instance, as a British Citizen, I'd have to officially make myself stateless before I could apply to naturalize.

Japan, as a nation, seriously needs to open its mind a bit if it wants to cope over the next 40 years. Either that, or start building grim, ultra-low-cost institutions to house its old folk.

Japan has been on the other side of the immigration scale. Notably http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Brazilian (the English is somewhat bad, but understandable) and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_American

Yes, immigration is problematic, but together with your second item, something could be worked by bringing the descendants of the Japanese immigrants, for example

HDI Projections 2010: Japan is 8th in the world 2015: Japan is now 5-7th in the world 2025: Japan is now 2nd in the world 2030: Japan is now 1st in the world

Shut up you cunts.

"Projections"

It's currently in n.10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Deve...

And IDH doesn't tell the whole story.

Better than your "ill-informed delusional ramblings".

I'd advise you talk about things that you understand, else the comment quality of this place is only going continue slipping. Not sure why this political piece is ranking so high here in the first place. Or has the site degenerated so much so quickly? (haven't checked HN for ages..)

> Better than your "ill-informed delusional ramblings".

Then please provide sources.

Japanese birth rates plunge to record low: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-07/japanese-birth-rate...

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/07/21/drastic-change-in-im...

Interesting you mention that

Immigration is also a hot topic in Germany, but they have:

- An influx of immigrants from the EU

- An influx of immigrants (from Eastern Europe) Some legal, some others, well

- Refugee influx (smaller than other countries like Italy and Spain, because of EU regulations)

But they have an easier "learning curve" , and are possibly (slightly) more open to immigration. The Turkish immigrants and their kids still face significant challenges

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_de... in these lists

For 2013: Germany 1.42, Japan 1.39 (middle column). Well, small difference.

I didn't know that Sarah Palin had an account on HN.

Better than your faded light text, dude. Please provide contrast! ;)

Well, thank god you are back. No really, it was getting dull without the level of insightful and civilised commentary that you so clearly provide. Please tell us more about your Views. I mean, you must be an absolute genius of our time, otherwise there wouldn't so many folk who think that you have gone completely and utterly batshit, right? I'm sure that is how it works.

You need to dip your quill in the ink well more often. I can't read what you're writing, sir!