Re:Tesla: Third Model S fire in past two months
by 001sky on Thursday November 07, 2013 @01:55PM
(#6691541)
about 80% involve cars in parking lots, at rest, in repair shops, etc. So, you need to adjust the data. of the 152k, only a subset [~26k] were on public highways. Once you do this, a tsla now has 3x (300%) the chance of a normal car in catching fire in a highway accident, when corrected for miles driven, etc.
Re:Tesla: Third Model S fire in past two months
by rattray on Thursday November 07, 2013 @02:05PM
(#6691636)
Care to share your calculations? They're quite the reverse of my back-of-the-envelope, which rounds to an egregious degree, and doesn't take into account the subset on public highways or not:
150,000 fires / 250mm total cars in america: ~ .0006
3 fires / 20,000 Teslas (their expectation for this year: ~.00015 (4x fewer fires)
I'm not sure whether we should care that gas cars catch fire in parking lots rather than highways... it seems like a huge concern regardless.
Re:Tesla: Third Model S fire in past two months
by 001sky on Thursday November 07, 2013 @02:12PM
(#6691681)
You need to adjust your data down to 26k hwy fires and correct for milage driven. For a comparison even to how tesla cites the data, see: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6499111
I'm not sure whether we should care that gas cars catch fire in parking lots rather than highways...
These vehicles are typically not occupied. So from a driver and passenger safety perspective...you really should care.
(152,300 fires per year) / (6 months) = 25,383 automobile fires based on data from 2006-2010
U.S. fire departments responded to an estimated average of 152,300 automobile fires per year in 2006-2010. These fires caused an average of 209 civilian deaths, 764 civilian injuries, and $536 million in direct property damage.
Facts and Figures
- Automobile fires were involved in 10% of reported U.S. fires, 6% of U.S. fire deaths.
- On average, 17 automobile fires were reported per hour. These fires killed an average of four people every week.
- Mechanical or electrical failures or malfunctions were factors in roughly two-thirds of the automobile fires.
- Collisions and overturns were factors in only 4% of highway vehicle fires, but these incidents accounted for three of every five (60%) automobile fire deaths.
- Only 2% of automobile fires began in fuel tanks or fuel lines, but these incidents caused 15% of the automobile fire deaths.
Source: http://www.nfpa.org/safety-information/for-consumers/vehicle...