Of course people will enroll eventually, but the first ones will be the ones with the most to gain. It isn't guaranteed that individuals won't eat the penalty and enroll when they need it, but you can guarantee that people who benefit with little or no cost to them will be want their benefits ASAP.

My point was mostly that if their "experts" can't think critically about the incentive system the program creates, what else will they be surprised about? Adverse selection? Insurer bankruptcy and industry consolidation?