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Re:Debt ceiling: Why the Great American Ponzi scheme might j... by rayiner on Friday October 18, 2013 @01:31PM (#6572620)
Sigh. So much writing and yet his logic train goes off the rails right out of the station.

The crucial difference between what the U.S. is doing and a Ponzi scheme is that the U.S. is actually generating income, to the tune of 1/4 of the world's economy. That income stream is missing in a Ponzi scheme. Paying off maturing debt by refinancing it with new debt is nothing unusual--corporations do it all the time. It's fine because there is the underlying income stream.

Now, the fact that it's not running a Ponzi scheme doesn't mean the U.S. can continue borrowing forever. Creditors might get nervous if the debt levels get too big relative to the income stream. What the U.S. has to worry about is not how much debt it's taking out now. What the U.S. has to worry about is some other country becoming a more attractive place for the world to stash its cash.

Re:Debt ceiling: Why the Great American Ponzi scheme might j... by notahacker on Friday October 18, 2013 @02:04PM (#6572907)
The US doesn't really even have to worry about another country becoming more attractive to park its cash; its financial obligations are still all denominated in dollars and the Federal Reserve can still continue to print them. The only real concern is that if there are deep structural problems the economy it might have to raise taxes to combat inflation (simultaneously cutting the deficit) even in an environment where there's no economic growth. As you point out, the US economy is plenty big enough to pay down debts with tax takings instead, but the government might have to hurt the economy to do so.
Re:Debt ceiling: Why the Great American Ponzi scheme might j... by rayiner on Friday October 18, 2013 @02:24PM (#6573075)
Right, but my point was that we get to consume more than our GDP because we're an an attractive place to park cash. When that ends, we can pay off our dollar-denominated debts but we won't be able to keep spending more than we generate.
Re:Debt ceiling: Why the Great American Ponzi scheme might j... by waps on Saturday October 19, 2013 @10:04AM (#6576439)
That's in theory. In practice the shock that ending that will cause will end any hope the US has of paying back it's debt, or even the interest on it, immediately. So it will cause an immediate default and destroy the economy that promised to pay it back in one fell swoop. There's no way out of that situation that doesn't involve reneging on repayment. Either directly (any sovereign nation, like the US, can simply legislate it's debt away like Greece -partially- did, and counterintuitively investors have no choice and will immediately reinvest, again, like Greece demonstrated)

So the US, like every other nation on this planet (barring a few, but only a few exceptions), has zero hope of ever paying back it's debt. So it won't.

That doesn't mean the illusion can't last a few more decades or even a century or two (though only a few states managed to make it last even a single century, the most famous being the Roman republic).

The reason that everybody's happy with this state of affairs is that it allows, at this moment, an economy that's factors larger than it would otherwise be.

This situation came to be as an "accident" (that has happened hundreds of times before in history), and there simply is no conceivable way out. Anybody who can rattle the boat risks losing big, even if it's monetary interests are protected, so the situation keeps existing until someone really, really goes too far.

Apres nous, le deluge. (google this sentence)

Re:Debt ceiling: Why the Great American Ponzi scheme might j... by markost on Friday October 18, 2013 @02:48PM (#6573233)
According to this U.S. Debt Clock [1]:

The interest on the national debt is $260 billion per year, on nearly $17 trillion in debt, for an effective interest rate of 1.5%. If that interest rate were to rise to 1980 levels, for instance, at 6% [2] that would be an annual interest payment of over $1 trillion/year.

In order to come up with an extra $700 million per year, the government would have to raise taxes by 25%. Possibly more depending on economic factors.

Now that I have run the numbers it seems that this is not as much of a Ponzi scheme as I thought but it still seems pretty bleak. Has anyone seen this video[3] of Japan's debt problem?

[1]: http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[2]: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/year1980_0.html - It appears that the government spent on interest about 6% worth of its total debt.

[3]: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Njp8bKpi-vg

Re:Debt ceiling: Why the Great American Ponzi scheme might j... by rayiner on Friday October 18, 2013 @03:37PM (#6573562)
Note that the U.S. holds fixed-interest debt. If interest rates go up it will be forced to refinance at higher rates, but it will happen over some period of time. The weighted average maturity of the debt right now is over 5 years, so it's not like it'll be an extra $700 billion all of the sudden.

In any case, a worrying level of debt does not make something a Ponzi scheme...