Re:Tesla stock tumbles after Model S catches fire
by makomk on Thursday October 03, 2013 @06:51PM
(#6492703)
Sure, you can look at all the crashes, but you'll still run into exactly the same problems with insufficient sample size because now you're dealing with a rare event, which means the required sample size balloons massively.
Let's look at this question "how bad will that fire be for persons and property involved?"
You look at your 12 crashes where fire occurs, so (e.g.) 6 crashes. Of 6 crashes 3 were accompanied with injuries. All 3 crashes that were accompanied by electrical fires and injuries occurred was when the car's speed was between (e.g.) 40mph and 50mph. Does that mean when the speed is not between 40mph and 50mph, people won't be injured when there's a crash and a fire? It means nothing like that but it's too easy to make a wrong conclusion; you're skipping all the other data where injuries and/or fires happen independently of crashes.