Apple can probably be a great company with just 20% of the international market and 40% of the US market (also, they are gaining % in the US which is sort of an indicator for how the world would behave in the near future).
Does the profit machine hold so well if you have a declining market share?
Yes. All that matters directly is $ not how many units you sell. As a business it all comes down to $ and whether you can keep it flowing. They have kept it flowing with a reduced market share by units. Also, shouldn't the system have collapsed long ago when Android overtook iOS quite a while back? Care to explain why it will fall? As a developer, I will always develop apps for the platform with the most number of paying customers who appreciate quality.
Consumers with $ will always go towards the best product. The hackers will go towards the best platform.
*I don't think it will hold up. I believe there's very likely a market share line in the sand, that if Apple gets pushed below it, there will be terrible profit consequences.(
Instead of giving poetic descriptions, please give us solid reasoning from financial first principles.
I am convinced that you just want to see Apple fail and have no solid argument. I would be interested in one if you have it. It is not all flowery for Apple, but claiming "terrible profit consequences" is just FUDish IMHO.
The profit machine does not hold if you lose market share.
There are penalties in economics for falling below lines in market share, and they accelerate destructively the lower you go. It's not a linear calculation, it's a compounding one.
Apple can't negotiate the same way with telecom companies for the hyper rich subsidies if they're not as relevant in the market. They can't negotiate as tremendous of supplier deals if they aren't selling as many units. They can't keep developer interest if the scale isn't high enough. Their music network loses its moat effect if they're not the #1 music platform because Android overtakes it via streaming services or otherwise.
I could list one or two dozen other powerful follow-on effects to Apple losing market share in smart phones. It's a very costly situation indeed.
By your reasoning, Mercedes-Benz is in a bad position compared with GM. We all know that is not the case as they are in different segment of the market, just like Apple.
Does the profit machine hold so well if you have a declining market share? (in which case there are dramatic follow-on consequences in pricing power with suppliers, margins in dealing with carriers, in app ecosystems, you name it).
I don't think it will hold up. I believe there's very likely a market share line in the sand, that if Apple gets pushed below it, there will be terrible profit consequences.