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Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by TwoBit on Wednesday March 20, 2013 @11:48PM (#5412764)
I've been looking into Solar for my house and it's hard to justify. A $15,000 installation pays back only $150 a month in electricity. This is little more than what I could get by putting that $15,000 into a mutual fund.
Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by JumpCrisscross on Thursday March 21, 2013 @02:21AM (#5413296)
I suspect your numbers may be off. A $15 000 investment that produced $150 in nominal cash flows a month for 20 years (low end) would produce an internal rate of return of 9.1%.

Yet solar panels do not produce nominal cash flows, they make energy - a real good. Energy inflation for urban consumers in the U.S. has averaged, month-to-month annualised, 6.7% over the past 10 years. This raises your IRR to 16.3%. The closest maturity-matched non-callable bond is TXU's 2034 6.55 yielding 15.2% to maturity and rated CC by Fitch.

Even allowing you to capture only 1/2 of the energy inflation, your return is 12.7%. A whole point south of Venezuela. Then again, a warranty from a solar company may be worth as much as a dollar lent to Caracas...

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by yessql on Thursday March 21, 2013 @10:42AM (#5415325)
PV is coming down in cost precipitously. Energy companies are buying huge PV farms. Their cost of energy will drop.

Utilities are regulated to limit their rates to guarantee minimum profitability, so their price must be correlated to their cost.

Ergo, electricity costs will drop. Your rooftop PV system is never going to be much cheaper, if ever cheaper at all, than the electricity that the utility will provide from utility scale PV that has been installed much more cheaply, and much more optimized than the arbitrary orientation of your roof.

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by JulianK on Thursday March 21, 2013 @12:44AM (#5412984)
I know you were just making a rough comparison, but $150 is 1% of 15000. If you're saying you spend $150/month in electricity and that's barely more than you get from a mutual fund, are you saying you get on the order of 12% a year from your mutual funds, even today?

I need different mutual funds.

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by sliverstorm on Thursday March 21, 2013 @12:58AM (#5413029)
Plenty of dividend stocks give more than 1%, even.

Edit: I am not on the ball tonight

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by seanmcdirmid on Thursday March 21, 2013 @01:13AM (#5413074)
> Plenty of dividend stocks give more than 1%, even.

1% a month, 12% a year on stock price? This is utterly impossible, the stock price would have risen. But if you can tell me where I can get 1% a month for some N$ investment, please share!

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by JulianK on Thursday March 21, 2013 @01:08AM (#5413057)
Per month? Quite consistently? I'm well outside my realm of expertise here so I'm honestly curious. It seems like if this were even semi-consistent people would be borrowing very heavily from banks and dropping it into these consistent stocks with something like 2-4x the interest.

I guess I'm always suspicious of free money.

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by sliverstorm on Thursday March 21, 2013 @01:12AM (#5413072)
Per month?

Oh, duh. My mistake. I can't even claim "it's late, I'm tired"

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by ghshephard on Thursday March 21, 2013 @12:01AM (#5412821)
So - what you are suggesting, is that Solar Panels (installed) are still too expensive and/or electricity is too cheap for you to invest in solar panels for your house right now?

My understanding is that many people invest in solar panels because of additional government incentives.

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by jcampbell1 on Thursday March 21, 2013 @01:05AM (#5413050)
A $15,000 investment that pays $1800 a year, guaranteed? I will write you a check tomorrow for the $15k.

I think your math is wrong somehow.

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by yardie on Thursday March 21, 2013 @05:14AM (#5413864)
Is that $150 a month in credit the electric company gives you to cover your bill or is that $150 straight up and no electric bill since the panels provide it?

If it's the former it's still a good investment. If it is the later it's a way better than any mutual fund in existence.

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by rurounijones on Thursday March 21, 2013 @12:04AM (#5412838)
Does that pay back calculation include the fact that this increases the resale value of your house?
Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by yekko on Thursday March 21, 2013 @12:38AM (#5412957)
It does not increase the resale value of the house.
Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by danielharan on Thursday March 21, 2013 @03:54AM (#5413640)
Citation needed.
Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by sliverstorm on Thursday March 21, 2013 @12:59AM (#5413030)
But what about my hottub? Surely that increases the resale value at least 10%!

/s

Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by jseliger on Thursday March 21, 2013 @12:27AM (#5412907)
AFAICT, that's why solar companies are shifting their business models to let the company pay the up-front installation cost and then pass some savings to the owner every month.
Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by qiqing on Thursday March 21, 2013 @12:16AM (#5412879)
The US introduced import tariffs of $0.18 to $1.60 per W for Chinese panels, which are produced for $0.63/W. Not entirely tethered to what the U.S. consumer sees...
Re:Chinese solar producer Suntech declares bankruptcy by hijinks on Thursday March 21, 2013 @02:10AM (#5413255)
might be only $150 now but in 10-15 years when rates double then it turns into a lot more money. Most solar companies are pitching the protection of the power companies rate increases.