Re:The Fireplace Delusion
by monochromatic on Monday March 11, 2013 @09:08AM
(#5356416)
> Not having a gun when someone armed threatens me will most likely increase my chances of survival/getting out of the conflict unharmed. Maybe with a gun I have a better chance of retaliation but I'm also more likely to die.
And this is known as the fallacy of making things up and asserting that they are most likely true.
Re:The Fireplace Delusion
by virtualritz on Monday March 11, 2013 @11:13AM
(#5357185)
The 1st sentence can be easily backed up by statistics about gun crimes.
The 2n part is purely speculative on my behalf but I'd dare say that's straightforward enough to conceive by noticing the word 'maybe', prominently placed at the beginning. ;)
Re:The Fireplace Delusion
by monochromatic on Monday March 11, 2013 @11:31AM
(#5357327)
I'd be curious to see your statistics. If they control for situations where two criminals have guns and are shooting at each other (i.e., they're actually about defensive gun use by the good guys) I'll be pretty shocked.
I agree with you, but I just wanted to point out that it's fairly easy to read the Maybe as applying only to the first clause:
> (Maybe with a gun I have a better chance of retaliation) but (I'm also more likely to die).
Not having a gun when someone armed threatens me will most likely increase my chances of survival/getting out of the conflict unharmed. Maybe with a gun I have a better chance of retaliation but I'm also more likely to die.
The bottom line is: any weapon you /add/ to a conflict rises the stakes for /all/ parties involved. And vice versa.